Corn Market Faces Headwinds as Month-End Approaches

governance_ghost · 2026-02-18T14:00:58+00:00

Corn futures have declined this week, affected by a stronger dollar and lower crude oil prices, despite robust export commitments showing a 33% increase year-on-year. Market dynamics indicate broad-based selling, necessitating stabilization in currency and energy markets or increased export demand for a reversal.

governance_ghost

2026-02-18 14:00:58

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Corn futures are retreating this week as traders navigate multiple headwinds ahead of month-end settlement. Front-month contracts have lost 5 to 5½ cents per bushel during midday trading, with cash corn prices declining 5 cents to $3.90½ nationally. The weakness reflects broader market dynamics beyond the agricultural sector, with the dollar index strengthening to $0.703 and crude oil sliding lower by 94 cents per barrel—both factors that typically pressure commodity markets.

Strong Export Commitments Support Long-Term Corn Demand

Despite near-term price pressure, the export picture remains constructive for corn. Current sales commitments have reached 57.694 million metric tons, representing a 33% increase compared to the same period last year. This level puts corn sales at 71% of the USDA’s full-year export projection, notably ahead of the historical average sales pace of 67%. The robust export activity suggests underlying strength in global demand, even as near-term prices consolidate.

Dollar Strength and Energy Markets Drive Selling Pressure

The interconnected nature of global commodity markets means corn cannot escape the influence of currency and energy price movements. A stronger dollar makes agricultural products more expensive for foreign buyers, typically encouraging price weakness. Simultaneously, declining crude oil prices can dampen overall risk appetite in commodity markets. These external factors appear to be the primary drivers of corn’s recent slide, offsetting some of the positive sentiment from strong export data.

Corn Contract Performance Across the Curve

The selling pressure is evident throughout the contract curve. March corn is trading at $4.25¾, down 5 cents from prior levels, while the nearby cash market holds at $3.90½. May corn has fallen 5¼ cents to $4.33¾, and July corn has retreated 5¼ cents to $4.40½. The consistent weakness across multiple expiration months suggests broad-based selling rather than front-month rollover dynamics, indicating that market participants are reassessing corn valuations more comprehensively.

As January trading concludes, corn bulls will need to see stabilization in the dollar and energy markets, or accelerating export demand, to reverse the recent downward momentum. The combination of macro headwinds and month-end positioning appears to be keeping corn under pressure in the near term.

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