#预测市场 The recent institutional outlook for 2026 has been summarized, highlighting several signals in the market that are worth paying attention to.

From on-chain data, leading institutions such as Coinbase, a16z, Galaxy, and others have almost reached a consensus—predicting that trading volume in the prediction market will significantly expand by 2026, with Coinbase estimating that aggregator weekly trading volume could reach the tens of billions of dollars range. The driving forces behind this include user migration due to changes in US tax policies and market expectations for the maturation of derivatives infrastructure.

More critically, structural signals include: the total market cap of stablecoins expected to reach $1.2 trillion, over 50 spot altcoin ETFs, and crypto ETF assets under management surpassing $400 billion—all providing liquidity foundations for the prediction market. The irreversible institutionalization process means the quality of entry capital is upgrading, and prediction markets as a derivatives layer will not be absent.

However, caution is needed regarding market risk dispersion. The dominance of aggregators mentioned by Coinbase hints at the current fragmentation, meaning platforms capable of consolidating trading volume are few. The four-year cycle divergence also persists; VanEck believes 2026 is more likely to be a year of consolidation, which could suppress volatility trading demand in the prediction market.

Overall, the fundamental outlook for the prediction market appears positive, but its specific performance will largely depend on macroeconomic patterns and the aggregation capabilities of leading platforms.