The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in January is only 5%, and the market expects limited rate cut opportunities this year.

【ChainNews】According to CME Federal Funds Futures data, market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s recent policy direction have been clearly adjusted.

The situation in January appears to be relatively “resilient”—the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve is only 5%, meaning the vast majority of traders and analysts believe that interest rates will remain unchanged this month, with a probability as high as 95%.

Looking ahead to March, the situation is not very optimistic either. Although there is a 20.7% chance of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut, the more likely scenario (78.4% probability) is that interest rates will stay at the current level. As for a more aggressive 50 basis point cumulative cut? That is essentially a low-probability event, with only a 0.9% chance.

This reflects the current market consensus on Federal Reserve policy: the window for rate cuts in the short term is quite limited, and decision-makers are more inclined to adopt a wait-and-see attitude. For digital asset investors, this means that the macro liquidity environment may not see significant improvement in the near future.