Gold Analysis: Can the yellow metal continue to rise against the strength of the dollar? - January 9, 2026

Gold Performance in Today’s Session

The gold markets experienced choppy movement during Friday’s trading, as the precious metal faced multiple pressures. The spot price declined by approximately 0.2%, reaching the level of $4,469 per ounce at 05:36 GMT, while February futures contracts slightly increased to trade near $4,477.

Despite this slight decline, gold maintained weekly gains exceeding 3%, reflecting ongoing fundamental demand for the metal as a hedge. However, markets are awaiting today’s US non-farm payroll data, which represents a critical juncture for assessing the trajectory of US monetary policy in the coming phase.

US Dollar Intensifies Pressure on Prices

The US dollar continues to rise against a basket of major currencies, benefiting from an uncertain political environment. Investors are awaiting a potential decision from the US Supreme Court regarding the President’s authority to impose tariffs, which has boosted demand for the dollar as a safe haven amid the ambiguity.

This strength in the currency intersection—where the dollar rises against other currencies—makes gold and other dollar-denominated assets more expensive for international buyers. This translates into short-term demand pressure and impacts the global purchasing power of the metal, even as fundamental factors remain supportive of higher prices.

Federal Reserve Statements and Their Impact on Expectations

Statements by Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran about the possibility of cutting interest rates by 150 basis points during 2026 sparked a market reevaluation. This expectation suggests that gold, a non-yielding asset, could become more attractive as the opportunity cost of holding it decreases.

However, mixed messages from other Fed members introduced uncertainty. Investors are now pricing multiple scenarios instead of relying on a single clear guidance, leading to increased market volatility and selective movements in gold.

US Economic Growth Reduces Hedge Appeal

Fitch has raised its US GDP growth outlook, highlighting the economy’s resilience despite some weaknesses in the labor market. According to the latest updates, stronger-than-expected economic growth is anticipated, along with rising inflation linked to potential tariff impacts.

This relatively better economic outlook reduces the urgent need for safe havens. In other words, if the economy remains healthy, demand for hedges naturally weakens, making investor strategies toward gold more selective and focused on political and monetary factors rather than purely economic concerns.

Global Geopolitical Tensions Support Demand

Conversely, geopolitical risks remain prominent. Continued tensions in the South China Sea, along with political conflicts in the Middle East and oil-producing regions, boost demand for safe assets. Institutional investors tend to increase their gold holdings as a risk hedge.

This complex geopolitical environment provides strong support for prices in the medium and long term, partly explaining the continued rise of gold in recent weeks despite daily technical pressures.

Expected Events That Will Move Markets

US Employment Report:
Today’s release of December 2025 employment data, a key indicator of the US labor market’s health. Any negative surprise could reinforce rate cut expectations and support gold, while strong data might prolong the period of high interest rates.

Federal Reserve Member Thomas Barkin’s Speech:
Barkin will speak later today, and his comments may clarify the upcoming monetary policy direction. Any signals toward further easing will support gold, whereas any hawkish remarks will put pressure on prices.

Consumer Expectations Index:
This index reflects consumer confidence in the US economy. A decline in confidence typically boosts demand for gold, while strong confidence may reduce interest in it.

Technical Chart Analysis and Developments

Gold is currently attempting to break out of a clear corrective movement after failing to sustain strong bullish momentum. The price retraced toward the $4,430 - $4,420 range, reflecting investors’ re-test of near-term demand close to previous consolidation zones.

Breaking the previous range between $4,455 and $4,491 indicates a natural profit-taking of buying momentum rather than a reversal of the main trend. As long as the price remains below $4,491.95, the bullish acceleration scenario remains postponed, but the overall trend on larger timeframes remains upward.

Current Momentum Indicators

MACD Indicator:
The MACD is moving downward with a negative crossover above the zero line, confirming a shift from momentum-building to short-term correction, without indicating a reversal of the medium-term trend.

RSI (Relative Strength Index):
Trading between 50-60, reflecting a neutral zone that indicates ongoing short-term selling pressure being absorbed without entering oversold territory.

Key Support and Resistance Levels

Resistance Levels:

• $4,570
• $4,640
• $4,700

Support Levels:

• $4,370
• $4,290
• $4,220

Price Outlook for the Coming Days

The gold market is currently balancing short-term pressures with medium-term bullish factors. Investors are monitoring employment data to assess the interest rate path, maintaining hedge demand despite volatility.

HSBC forecasts gold reaching $5,000 per ounce in the first half of 2026, driven by geopolitical risks and rising global debt levels. However, the bank has lowered its average annual forecast to $4,587 per ounce, with an expected range between $3,950 and $5,050 during the year.

Major institutions like Morgan Stanley and UBS expect gold to maintain elevated trading levels, with potential resistance at $4,800 in the last quarter of the year, provided fundamental support persists.

Recommended Trading Strategy

In this complex scenario, it is preferable to focus on selective buying from strong support zones at $4,370-$4,290, with strict risk management and as long as the price maintains the overall upward trend.

Selling should be tactical and short-term only during weak rebounds below resistance levels, until the price regains stability above $4,491.95 and confirms a strong bullish momentum.