The current XRP price is $2.08, but history suggests we may be looking at an 850% surge.

When XRP decisively loses the game below the key moving average, the history of the cryptocurrency market teaches us something interesting — the current weakness may just be the calm before the storm. In the midst of a bearish climate, where even the average IQ of market observers seems to reach a minimum, recurring technical patterns give reason for reflection.

Why is the 50-week SMA the boundary between capitulation and revival?

Before we move on to exciting forecasts, it’s worth understanding where the strength of this support line comes from. Over the years, the 50-week moving average for XRP has served as a kind of structural barrier — when the price remains below this level for 50–84 days, it traditionally signals the end of a downtrend and the beginning of a potential rebound. This is not a magic number, but the result of multiple verifications on historical charts.

What do previous cycles tell us?

The history of XRP is a series of incredible recoveries after periods of depression. In 2018, when the price stayed below this average for about 70 days, the final rebound increased the price by over 200%. The four-year jump — in 2021 — lasted shorter (49 days), but the result was similarly impressive, with an increase of about 70%.

However, the most dramatic example came recently. In 2024, XRP spent 84 days below this historical support level. When it finally broke upward, the price reached $3.66 in mid-2025 — representing about an 850% increase from the cycle lows. Such numbers do not appear by chance; they indicate a pattern that is too consistent to ignore.

Where are we today?

Current XRP at $2.08 resembles previous turning points. We have been actively trading nearly 70 days below that moving average, and the last support wall at $2 has just been broken. Momentum indicators, such as RSI, have reached extreme levels — territories that historically preceded strong rebounds.

At the same time, we must be honest: short-term signals are mixed. Bearish formations on charts, including potential double tops, and macroeconomic pressures affecting the entire sector, do not give reasons for calm. However, the same conditions — overly oversold metrics, no panic selling on exchanges — may indicate that a bottom is slowly forming.

Scenario that everyone is watching closely

If the pattern from the past repeats, and XRP again breaks above the 50-week moving average after this prolonged period of pressure, the consequences could be spectacular. If the base is the current lows around $1.80–$1.85, then a full repetition of that 850% increase would mean price targets well beyond previous all-time highs. Even a more conservative scenario — half of that growth — would suggest a dramatic correction relative to current levels.

Of course, the past does not guarantee the future. Cryptocurrency markets remain susceptible to sentiment shifts, regulatory decisions, capital flows, and broader macroeconomic conditions. For traders waiting for confirmation of this pattern, the coming weeks will be decisive — they will test not only whether the next cycle aligns with history but also whether XRP will again undertake this extraordinary rally.