What signals does the latest Federal Reserve decision send?

Early morning on January 29th, the Federal Reserve announced that interest rates would remain unchanged. This decision seems routine, but its impact on the crypto market could be beyond expectations.

Data shows that the probability of a rate cut this month is only 5%, making it almost certain. Even more noteworthy is that the market's expectation for a rate cut in March is only 30%—indicating that the Fed's stance on easing policies is much more conservative than market expectations.

**Why not cut rates?**

The US dollar's appreciation and high interest rates have long been tools of the Federal Reserve. By maintaining high rates, the Fed is reinforcing the dollar's position in the global financial system. This benefits traditional financial assets but also shifts capital flows—funds seeking high yields are starting to look for alternative assets.

Cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin and Ethereum, have become prime recipients of this capital. Institutional investors' holdings of BTC and ETH continue to rise, and retail investor consensus is also expanding.

**What’s next?**

In the short term, the Fed maintaining high interest rates will cause market volatility. But in the long run, the ongoing inflow of institutional funds and the expanding user base are building new support for crypto assets.

From a cyclical perspective, the first significant upward trend is expected to appear in spring and summer of 2026. Of course, this requires you to prepare in advance—protect liquidity and choose the right timing for deployment.

The fundamental logic behind mainstream coins like BTC, ETH, and XRP remains unchanged; the key is to grasp the rhythm.