2026-01-11 13:25:35

The Federal Reserve suddenly shifts course, causing turbulence in the global markets—On January 11th, many investors' holdings face an unprecedented test.

What is hidden behind the numbers? The December non-farm payroll data was released, showing only a 50,000 increase in jobs, far below expectations, yet the unemployment rate surprisingly fell from 4.3% to 4.4%. This contradictory data caught the market off guard. Expectations of rate cuts also cooled down, and the previously optimistic easing cycle appears to be under reevaluation.

Even more outrageous is the unprecedented escalation of policy disagreements. Three dissenting votes appeared within the Federal Reserve, and the dot plot indicates a serious split in the committee's opinions. With Powell's term ending soon, the selection of the new chair has become a focal point for the market. This uncertainty itself constitutes a form of risk.

Although U.S. stocks hit new highs, the underlying capital flows are subtly changing—leading tech stocks are gradually losing their dominance, while materials and utilities stocks are becoming new favorites. This rotation implies a re-pricing of economic prospects. Meanwhile, emerging markets attracted $256 billion in inflows, with Chinese assets drawing particular attention. This gives ETH and other cryptocurrencies a space for imagination: Could they also ride this wave of emerging market momentum?

Regarding liquidity, the Fed has paused its balance sheet reduction, but the technical bond purchase measures that followed have opened another form of liquidity supply. Inflationary pressures still persist, and Fed member Bostic even warned that inflation could still exceed the 2.5% target in 2026, indicating that policy adjustments are far more complex than initially thought.

The repeated expectations of rate cuts, intensified political struggles, and accumulating fiscal pressures—these factors intertwine, likely prolonging the era of high volatility. In such an environment, rational position planning becomes especially crucial. Whether ETH can ride the waves depends on how investors interpret the opportunities and risks hidden within this storm.

ETH-0,73%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

8 Likes

Reward
8
9
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

AltcoinHunter

· 4h ago

Bitcoin is tricking me into selling again, really, when I saw those three opposing votes I knew this show wasn't over Emerging markets attracted 256 billion? If Chinese assets rise, why can't ETH fly? The logic is consistent, everyone Policy splits are the most frustrating, even more painful than a direct rate hike. At least with a rate hike, I can buy the dip. Now? Who knows who Powell will sit with next From a technical perspective, the rotation of materials stocks and utilities is institutions rebalancing, indicating they are also scared, but I’ve already gone all-in [laughing and crying] Liquidity is there, inflation is still present, and uncertainty is even greater. This is the high-volatility environment I love most, brothers. Those selling are the ones without faith

View OriginalReply0

NewDAOdreamer

· 18h ago

The Fed's recent actions really mess with people's mindsets. The rate cut expectations come and go, who can handle that... Emerging markets attracting 256 billion is a signal, it feels like crypto should have a chance too. Policy division is so severe, Powell is about to leave, and whoever the new chair is will have to start from scratch, it's troublesome. Tech stocks are stepping back? Those institutions are really rebalancing, not just a fake move. Liquidity-wise, they paused balance sheet reduction but are doing technical bond purchases. It seems the Fed hasn't even figured it out themselves haha. In this high-volatility era, it will continue. Positions must be carefully planned; going all-in is a death wish.

View OriginalReply0

MissedAirdropAgain

· 01-11 13:33

The Fed's recent moves are truly incredible, with data becoming more and more outrageous. Powell is about to step down; the new chair will be chosen based on political trends, which is the real black swan. Emerging markets are all bleeding, just waiting for ETH to take off as well. Honestly, this high volatility is going to last for a long time; you need to watch your positions carefully. No more rate cuts, but inflation still needs to continue? It's so frustrating. Funds are rotating so quickly; aren't tech stocks still attractive? With this set of liquidity measures, who can withstand it? It feels like opportunities and risks are two sides of the same coin; you can't tell which will come first. Will inflation still be above target in 2026? Then our money will just keep shrinking. This pace makes me feel like stockpiling coins.

View OriginalReply0