In the past few days, many people have been carried away by $MERL 's upward momentum. It looks like the price is moving, the rankings are rising, and the market suddenly seems to be turning stronger. However, my judgment is that this wave is not a trend reversal but a standard weak rebound. I remain firmly bearish and continue to prioritize a short-selling strategy.

From a structural perspective, this rally resembles a volatility deliberately amplified in a low-liquidity environment. The price temporarily surged to 0.45 USDT, pushing the market cap into the top hundred on CoinMarketCap. However, the trading depth did not improve simultaneously; a small amount of capital can push the price higher, creating an illusion of increased volume and market sentiment warming. Essentially, this is setting the stage for subsequent distribution. This pattern is more consistent with a trap for late longs rather than fresh capital re-entering to buy.

The technical analysis also supports a bearish outlook. The price repeatedly encounters resistance around 0.45 USDT, quickly falling back to 0.42 USDT after a brief rally. This indicates that selling pressure above remains significant. The KDJ indicator is in the overbought zone, and the MACD negative histogram continues to expand. The trend has not undergone any substantial change; the bearish structure remains intact. As long as these signals are not broken, I will not consider this rebound as a trend reversal.

Operationally, I clearly choose to follow the trend and short rather than chase the high. The core idea is to look for short opportunities around 0.45 USDT. If the price effectively breaks below 0.4 USDT later, it indicates a continuation of the trend, and I can add to my position accordingly.

Overall, my conclusion is to maintain a clear bearish stance on $MERL . All rebounds are more like emotional repairs rather than fundamental structural changes.

At this stage, controlling risk and following the trend to short is far more rational than betting on a reversal.