2025-12-25 11:25:24

MERL's so-called "Christmas行情" this round always feels a bit off. From the high of 0.44, it has been sliding all the way down to around 0.422, with the entire rhythm resembling a classic trap—诱多 then反手砸盘.

Honestly, if you missed the 0.44 move, the current price actually offers a decent observation window. But the problem is, that might not be a good thing.

The market's shift is already quite obvious—initially a诱多 phase, now transitioning into a slow distribution stage. The 0.43 level has become a tough resistance, with every rebound being pushed back down, unable to hold ground. The 0.422 level is interesting; it sits right at the point where the MA5 and MA10 moving averages flatten and start to turn down. If it continues to consolidate here and can't break above 0.43, then the next step is to prepare for a breakdown.

The bearish momentum is gradually strengthening. The 4-hour MACD negative bars are getting longer, RSI has slid from overbought territory back to around 48, showing no signs of stopping. Unlike the aggressive moves around 0.44, the current 0.422 price seems more like a step-by-step confirmation of a downtrend.

The most painful part is liquidity— as the price drops day by day, the buy orders on the order book are shockingly thin. The heavy sell pressure from the massive unlock on December 19 hasn't fully dissipated yet, so the current 0.422 is far from a bottom; it’s more like a relay point in the downtrend.

If you really want to trade, I suggest this:

Gradually open short positions in the 0.422 to 0.428 range, adding on rebounds. Place stops above 0.442— as long as the price can't reclaim the strong resistance at 0.435, the bearish structure remains intact. First target is around 0.405 to 0.41; if volume breaks below 0.40, then aim directly for the 0.385 support.

0.422 is still far from the bottom. Don't expect any "Christmas miracle" to appear here. As long as it can't hold above 0.43, those sideways moves and small rebounds are just preparations for a sharper decline. Strict stop-loss and discipline come first.

MERL5.29%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

10 Likes

Reward
10
4
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

GateUser-3824aa38

· 4h ago

It's the same old trick again,诱多 then dumping, I'm tired of seeing it. I didn't get in during the 0.44 wave, but now entering is truly a gift. MA5 turning flat and then starting to bend down? This signal couldn't be more obvious, the bears clearly don't want to give the bulls a chance to breathe. Liquidity is frighteningly thin, and this is the most dangerous place. When it truly breaks, that's when the retail investors get caught. Instead of waiting for some Christmas miracle here, it's better to wait for 0.405. Stop-loss must be ruthless.

View OriginalReply0

MEVSandwich

· 4h ago

It's the same old trick, buying is never as smart as selling. --- 0.44 was long gone, now those buying in are just unlucky. --- I just want to know who the hell still dares to buy the dip at 0.43. --- With such poor liquidity, still daring to move around, give me a break. --- Christmas rally? Ha, this is a Christmas dump. --- The bears are pretty aggressive this time, breaking support is only a matter of time. --- Stop-loss is easy to talk about but hard to do, most people are about to get liquidated. --- See you at 0.385, don’t ask me how I know. --- The distribution phase is just like this, rebound then sell off, sell off then rebound. --- With MACD moving like this, it feels like there's still plenty of room to go down. --- Buying with thin support is indeed a dangerous signal. --- Don’t tell me about bottoms, in this kind of market, bottoms are always fake.

View OriginalReply0

OnchainHolmes

· 4h ago

Another classic trap to lure buyers and then reverse. Getting tired of it. The bearish structure is so clear; if it can't hold at 0.43, we should look lower.

View OriginalReply0

GasGuzzler

· 4h ago

Another trap to lure and harvest; I knew it wouldn't go so smoothly. The short-term structure hasn't been broken, but I'm worried that the main force is brewing some big move again.

View OriginalReply0