#美联储降息政策 I recently came across a data point indicating that the probability of the Federal Reserve pausing interest rate cuts in January next year has risen to 78%, which made me think of a topic that many people overlook.

Many investors focus on the opportunities that rate cuts might bring but often neglect another equally important issue — when liquidity faces challenges, is our portfolio allocation sufficiently robust?

The past two rate cut cycles gave everyone ample time to adjust, but if liquidity truly begins to tighten next year, those seemingly healthy asset allocations might reveal problems under stress testing. I have seen too many investors pile into positions during favorable times, only to regret it when market sentiment shifts.

Instead of guessing what the Federal Reserve will do next, ask yourself now: if liquidity really tightens, how much volatility can my asset allocation withstand? Have I left enough defensive space?

Long-term steady returns never come from timing every move perfectly but from maintaining enough resilience amid uncertainty. While there’s still time to adjust, it’s a good idea to review your portfolio structure to ensure that safety always comes first.