Recently, the market has been buzzing about the US Q3 GDP growth reaching 4.3%, far exceeding the expected 3.3%. The financial circle is cheering and saying this is a sign of strong economic growth, and risk assets are rising accordingly. But upon closer inspection of the market data, I have a different view.

The apparent sharp increase in GDP is indeed impressive, making it look like the economy is accelerating. However, the issue is that the logic behind the crypto market's movements has never been simply following such macro "big data." Many people are easily guided by mainstream narratives, but the real driving force behind capital flowing into high-risk assets is often hidden behind another indicator — the ISM Manufacturing Index. This is the key reference for predicting crypto market cycles.

Looking back at history reveals the pattern. In the major rallies of 2017 and 2021, the trigger was not how high the GDP was, but whether the ISM Manufacturing Index broke through the 55 expansion threshold. Only when manufacturing truly enters a strong expansion cycle will hot money flood into high-risk assets like crypto and small caps. When the economy's internal cycle is active, and risk appetite among companies and individuals rises, money begins to chase stimulating assets.

Returning to the present: GDP has surged to 4.3%, but have you checked if the ISM Manufacturing Index has kept up? The answer is no. That’s the problem. Relying solely on the impressive GDP data is not enough to sustain a continued rise in the crypto market. In fact, this contradiction — strong GDP but lagging manufacturing index — is more likely a trap rather than a positive signal.

So when monitoring the market, don’t just look at the surface GDP news. You need to focus on indicators like the ISM that more directly reflect economic vitality. That’s the real signal light for when ETH and other risk assets will truly take off.