The four-year cycle of Bitcoin is dead! Bitwise Chief Investment Officer: The crypto market has entered a ten-year endurance battle

The influence of the three major drivers of the four-year cycle of Bitcoin has significantly weakened. Institutional investors entering the market and improved regulation are driving the market into a ten-year endurance phase. Investors need to establish a new mindset framework to cope with future trends. This article is based on an article by Matt Hougan, compiled, edited, and written by Foresight News.
(Previous summary: Galaxy Digital: After deducting inflation, Bitcoin has never actually broken through $100,000)
(Additional background: Sentora Research: Bitcoin is expected to challenge $150,000 in 2026! Three key catalysts are brewing)

In recent weeks, during meetings with institutional investors, the most frequently asked question was: Does the four-year cycle of Bitcoin still have reference significance?

The so-called four-year cycle refers to the pattern in Bitcoin’s history of “three years of rise, the fourth year of crash.”

This question is crucial because, according to the logic of the four-year cycle, next year will be a difficult year for Bitcoin and the entire crypto market.

Although I cannot accurately predict the price trend of cryptocurrencies next year, I believe that blindly believing that the four-year cycle will mechanically repeat is not wise. After all, the four-year cycle is not a divine law carved in stone; its formation actually stems from three specific driving factors:

• Bitcoin halving events: The mining reward on the Bitcoin blockchain is halved every four years.
• Interest rate fluctuations: Two interest rate surges in 2018 and 2022 both triggered market corrections in the crypto space.
• Market cycles of skyrocketing and crashing: Years of crypto crashes (2014, 2018, 2022) all occurred immediately after strong bullish years. For example, Bitcoin rose 5530% in 2013, 1349% in 2017, and 57% in 2021. During market frenzy periods, fraud and speculative bubbles continuously emerge, and bubble bursts—such as the crackdown on ICOs by regulators in 2018 and the collapse of FTX exchange in 2022—directly triggered market crashes that year.

Today, these three major drivers are either significantly weakened or moving in completely opposite directions compared to previous cycles. The impact of Bitcoin halving is no longer as strong as four years ago; interest rates are likely to decline rather than rise in 2026; and the crypto market in 2025 has not shown the kind of frenzy and skyrocketing seen in previous cycles.

Meanwhile, more decisive forces, especially the massive entry of institutional investors and the gradual improvement of regulatory policies, are brewing for 2026. In our latest “2026 Market Forecast” report, we predict Bitcoin will hit a new all-time high next year. Currently, I still believe this is the most likely outcome.

What will replace the four-year cycle?

If the four-year cycle has truly ended, a reasonable question follows: what new mindset framework should we establish for the crypto market in 2026 and beyond?

The four-year cycle once provided clear guidance for investors. Knowing whether the market is in a recovery phase, a bull market, or a crypto winter helps investors stay the course during bear markets and remain rational during bull markets.

So, what kind of mindset framework can replace it now?

The answer is: a ten-year endurance battle.

I know, this phrase sounds far less eye-catching than the four-year cycle. But please listen carefully, because I firmly believe this is the essence of the current market.

The so-called endurance battle refers to the long-term tug-of-war between two forces: one is a powerful, persistent, and gradually increasing positive driving force; the other is intermittent explosive negative shocks that come with momentum but lack staying power.

Currently gathering momentum are positive drivers such as: accelerated institutional investment, ongoing regulatory improvements, concerns over fiat currency devaluation, and the practical application scenarios of stablecoins and asset tokenization.

The goal of these trends is to revolutionize deeply rooted traditional systems like capital markets, global payment systems, and the international monetary system. Fully shaping these will take more than ten years. Early signs of this process are already visible everywhere: billions of dollars flowing into crypto ETFs, crypto-related legislation steadily advancing in Congress, the rapid expansion of stablecoins and tokenized markets, and so on.

But progress will inevitably encounter resistance. Potential negative shocks include: macroeconomic impacts, a wave of leveraged liquidation, and malicious events like hacking, scams, and exit scams. The impact cycle of such negative shocks usually lasts weeks, months, or quarters.

Overall, the long-term influence of positive drivers far exceeds that of negative shocks, but the rapid outbreak of negative shocks can short-term suppress positive forces. The market crash on October 10, 2025, is a typical example: a macroeconomic shock triggered massive liquidation of leveraged positions in crypto, leading to a sharp market plunge.

This endurance battle pattern has caused a serious divergence in the current crypto market: retail investors are deeply despairing, while many institutional investors remain optimistic. The root cause lies in their different time horizons. Retail investors focus on the aftermath of the October liquidation event; institutional investors envision a future where stablecoin assets surpass $3 trillion by 2030.

Both perspectives are reasonable, but they are based on different time scales.

The significance of the endurance battle for investors

Over the past few months, I have been analyzing the market within the “endurance battle” framework, and this approach has proven to be highly valuable. The endurance battle pattern suggests that the market will exhibit the following characteristics:

• In the long term, returns are substantial but not outrageously exaggerated
• Overall volatility decreases
• Periodic 20%–40% corrections occur

This means that investors must take every market correction seriously, as they may last quite a long time. But as long as the fundamentals remain strong, they can believe that prices will eventually rebound.

Looking back, I believe the crypto market officially entered the endurance battle phase when Bitcoin spot ETFs were approved in January 2024. This milestone triggered a wave of institutional investment, and I believe this trend will continue for a full ten years. In fact, since the ETF listing, Bitcoin’s price has increased by 93%, with three deep corrections exceeding 20%.

I believe that for a long time to come, the market will maintain these return characteristics. The endurance battle may not be as thrilling as past cycles of wild surges and crashes, but it signifies that the crypto industry is undergoing a deeper transformation. When an asset class matures, the era of endurance has arrived.