Is the international copper price trend looking optimistic? Seize the investment opportunities in the copper market by 2025

Why is copper price worth paying attention to?

Copper is known as the “doctor” of commodities because its price fluctuations often reflect the health of the global economy. As the green energy transition and electric vehicle penetration accelerate, the structural demand for copper will continue to rise. For investors, mastering the three core questions of “why invest in copper,” “what are the investment methods,” and “what risks to watch out for” is enough to easily enter this market.

Latest Trends and Short-term Outlook for Copper Prices

Currently, international copper prices are generally trending upward, but short- to medium-term fluctuations are inevitable. According to the latest forecasts from major investment banks:

Summary of mainstream forecasting institutions:

Citibank estimates that the average copper price in Q2 2025 will be about $9,000 per ton, rising to $8,800 in three months. Supporting factors include the US easing tariff policies, China building inventory on dips, and tightening US scrap metal inventories.

Goldman Sachs is even more optimistic, expecting copper prices to reach $9,600 within three months, break $10,000 in six months, and hit $10,700 by the end of the year. The bank’s analysis indicates that US import tariffs can curb excess inventories, and from late Q2, monthly digestion of 30–40 thousand tons of inventory will further push prices higher.

UBS forecasts an average copper price of $10,500 per ton in 2025, emphasizing that supply may tighten in the next six months to a year, with an annual supply gap of over 200,000 tons.

JPMorgan Chase expects the US to possibly impose at least 10% tariffs on refined copper and copper products by the end of Q3, with a 25% tariff being a possibility. The bank’s forecast for copper prices in 2025 is $10,400 per ton.

Market variables reacting early:

The US “Section 232 investigation” could impose a 25% tariff at any time. The market has already started stockpiling in advance, changing the arbitrage flow between London and New York, leading to more volatile short-term fluctuations.

Key Drivers of Copper Prices in 2025

Strong Fundamentals in Supply and Demand

Electric vehicles consume an average of 83 kg of copper per vehicle. Coupled with the wave of wind power, solar energy, and infrastructure upgrades, the structural demand for copper remains robust. In 2024, green energy and electric vehicle sectors have already used 4 million tons of copper, with demand expected to increase by another 700,000 tons in 2025.

New urbanization projects in China, high-speed rail network extensions, and 5G infrastructure deployment are boosting demand for copper wiring and piping. Although the world’s largest copper company, Codelco, plans to increase production by 70,000 tons to around 1.4 million tons in 2025, this increase still falls short of the rapidly growing demand. Mining rights disputes in major copper-producing countries like Peru are frequent, and supply-side flexibility remains limited.

Policy and Geopolitical Factors Influence the Market

The US has launched a “national security investigation” into copper, with concerns that a 25% import tariff could be imposed within the year, fueling stockpiling. Copper imports into the US from London and Shanghai are surging, with port inventories piling up, while LME and SHFE inventories are decreasing. Chinese policy orientation often determines the market trend; any infrastructure or monetary easing signals can trigger a new round of demand.

Macroeconomics and Interest Rate Policies

Market expectations suggest the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates in 2025. If true, metal assets will rise; if the Fed remains on hold or signals concern about inflation, copper prices will be pressured. Copper prices have an inverse relationship with the US dollar—when the dollar weakens, copper tends to rise; when the dollar appreciates, copper faces downward pressure.

Green Transition and Government Support

The EU’s “Fit for 55” plan advances carbon reduction, and upgrades to power grids and renewable energy infrastructure will drive explosive growth in copper consumption. The US “Inflation Reduction Act” continues to provide subsidies for electric vehicles and charging stations, further boosting copper demand.

Risks to Watch Out for in Copper Investment

Policy Risks: Results from the Section 232 investigation, escalating US-China trade tensions, or sudden policy changes in China could instantly alter the supply-demand landscape.

Geopolitical Risks: Political and social instability in Chile, Peru, delays in projects in the Democratic Republic of Congo, and other geopolitical issues could challenge supply stability at any time.

Economic Recession Risks: If the US or global economy enters recession, with sharply declining domestic demand and postponed green infrastructure projects, copper prices could experience significant retracement.

Technological Substitution Risks: Although current EVs, wind power, and energy storage use copper without substitutes, breakthroughs in lithium batteries or carbon fiber could slow down copper demand growth.

International Copper Price Outlook 2025-2030

As of April 2025, international copper prices are closely watched, mainly driven by US tariff policies, changes in Chinese demand, and global supply conditions.

In an optimistic scenario, if green energy successfully replaces oil, the structural demand for copper will remain high, potentially pushing prices to new highs from 2025 to 2030. However, if power generation costs remain high and reliance on fossil fuels persists, copper prices may retreat quickly after breaking through highs, fluctuating within a range.

Current mainstream forecasts suggest an overall upward trend for copper prices, but investors should carefully assess market risks. Chasing highs cautiously is advised to avoid losses if the market reverses. It is also recommended to monitor oil prices, as crude oil costs are a key component of copper production costs, and their fluctuations will directly impact copper supply, demand, and price trends.

Copper Investment Basics: Three Major Trading Methods

Copper Futures Trading

Suitable for: Investors with experience and strong risk tolerance

Mainly conducted on the NYMEX(COMEX), with standard contracts of 25,000 pounds, and mini(12,500 pounds) and micro(2,500 pounds) contracts available. Traders can leverage margin trading to amplify gains, but contracts require physical delivery at expiration.

Copper CFDs(

Suitable for: Investors seeking flexible trading and wishing to avoid physical delivery

Traded online, supporting both long and short positions, with leverage options. No physical delivery at expiry, suitable for short-term trading and market volatility response.

) Copper ETFs and Stocks(

Suitable for: Long-term investors with lower risk appetite

Such as ETFs tracking copper prices or related indices, and stocks of copper mining companies like Freeport-McMoRan. These can be freely traded on stock markets with good liquidity.

Core Recommendations for Copper Investment

As an important indicator of the global economy, copper prices are closely linked to economic cycles. Investing in copper can diversify investment portfolios and capture long-term growth opportunities.

For professional investors, copper futures are favored for their ability to go long or short and leverage, allowing low-cost investment. However, futures have expiration dates, making it challenging for beginners to master the investment cycle. In contrast, CFDs) offer lower margin requirements, smaller minimum trading units, no expiration, and 24/7 trading, providing more flexibility for investors with limited capital.

Most mainstream forex trading platforms currently offer copper-related CFD products. Investors can choose suitable trading tools and platforms based on their needs, gradually accumulate trading experience, and establish comprehensive risk management systems.