2025 Year-End Wrap-Up! The Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25BP as scheduled!!

What exactly did Powell say last night?!

How will it affect global financial trends???

Key highlights at a glance!!

1️⃣ FOMC Overview: a 25 basis point rate cut to 3.50%-3.75%, marking the third consecutive rate cut, with three dissenting votes, the biggest dovish-hawkish controversy in 37 years!

2️⃣ Interest Rate Outlook: expected to cut only once in 26 years, as a preventive measure.

🤔 The biggest points of contention between doves and hawks this time are nothing but two points:
1. The rate cut this time is too small 2. The number of rate cuts in 26 years is too low! 📉

3 dissenting votes likely come from dovish lawmakers favored by Old Trump: Boman, Milan, Waller;
📊 and the market does not believe there will be only one rate cut in 26 years; the dot plot will keep changing!

Powell’s successor will be announced by May next year, with the highest favor for Haskett, a low-interest-rate advocate, the candidate favored by Old Trump!
If he takes office, the market will most likely head towards lower interest rates (rate cuts)!

3️⃣ Inflation Outlook: inflation has risen somewhat since the beginning of the year, mainly due to tariffs. If tariffs are lifted, inflation will be at the lower end of the 2% range.

Tariff issues are just routine ping-pong between Old Powell and Old Trump 🤡

4️⃣ Economic Outlook: does not believe the economy is overheating; economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace.

5️⃣ Labor Market: the risk of unemployment rate rising has increased; some downside risks to employment.

One of the Fed’s most concerned indicators is employment and the unemployment rate. If unemployment rises, the labor market will weaken, affecting the Fed’s further rate cuts!

6️⃣ Reserve Purchases: will begin on December 12, purchasing $40 billion in Treasury securities over the next 30 days.

Buying short-term US Treasuries to expand its balance sheet (rate cuts + expansion)

🔥7️⃣ Trump’s Reaction: continues to criticize Powell! saying the rate cut is too small, could be doubled! should be lowered to the lowest in the world!

🤡 Our Old Trump never disappoints! Haskett is in!!! let’s fucking go!!!!!!