Pi Network's daily trading volume is only 16 million! Double bottom pattern hints at a rebound to $0.25

Pi Network hovers around $0.2115 on Monday, slightly above the key support level of $0.1952, down more than 90% from its all-time high. Daily trading volume is only $16 million, available on just a few exchanges like Gate. This month, 117 million tokens will be unlocked. Technical analysis shows a double bottom pattern with a neckline at $0.2823, exhibiting bullish divergence, with a target of $0.25.

Ghost Chain Dilemma: The Fatal Flaw of Lack of dApps

Pi Network has been in turmoil because it is widely regarded as a ghost chain with no activity. Unlike Ethereum and Solana, Pi Network currently has no popular decentralized applications (dApps) using its tokens. This lack of utility means Pi Coin relies entirely on speculative demand rather than genuine usage within the ecosystem.

Ethereum hosts thousands of active dApps like Uniswap, Aave, and OpenSea, processing millions of transactions daily. Solana has popular applications such as Jupiter, Phantom, and Magic Eden, with ecosystem trading volume regularly reaching billions of dollars. In contrast, Pi Network’s on-chain activity is extremely sparse, with most holders viewing it as a speculative asset rather than a payment or application tool.

In recent months, developers have begun to promote the ecosystem through hackathons, investing in CiDi Games and OpenMind. Pi Network is also working to introduce smart contracts into its network, planning to migrate to Stellar’s v23 version and Rust smart contracts. Additionally, developers are working on decentralized exchanges and automated market maker tools.

However, these efforts are still in the very early stages, and there is a long way to go before a meaningful ecosystem is formed. More critically, the market is already fatigued by these “coming soon” promises. Since its launch in 2019, Pi Network has promised to build a complete ecosystem but has yet to deliver. This “boy who cried wolf” effect has severely undermined market confidence, and even if valuable applications are eventually launched, it may take a long time to rebuild trust.

From the holder behavior perspective, Pi Network users mainly obtain tokens for free through mobile mining at near-zero cost. This holder structure means any price rebound will face profit-taking pressure, as assets acquired at zero cost generate pure profit at any price. This differs from Bitcoin miners or Ethereum stakers, who have real costs involved, creating more solid price support.

Supply Pressure from 117 Million Tokens Unlocking

Due to ongoing token unlocks, market demand remains weak. Data shows that later this month, over 117 million tokens will be unlocked, and next month, 97 million will be unlocked. Over the next 12 months, more than 1.24 billion tokens will be unlocked. This continuous and large-scale token unlocking represents the biggest structural pressure on Pi Network’s price.

Token unlocks are typically allocated to the team, early investors, and community contributors, whose costs are very low and have strong incentives to cash out. When 117 million tokens are unlocked in January, it could add approximately $24.7 million in potential selling pressure at current prices. With daily trading volume only at $16 million, even a small portion of unlocked tokens entering the market could significantly impact the price.

Three major trading restrictions worsen liquidity issues

Limited exchange coverage: Pi Network is only listed on a few exchanges like Gate, with no new CEX listings planned. This limited exchange coverage severely restricts liquidity and user reach.

Severely inadequate daily trading volume: $16 million daily volume is negligible for a token with a market cap of $1.7 billion. This means large buy or sell orders can cause sharp price swings, deterring professional traders and institutional investors.

Unlock of 1.24 billion tokens in the next 12 months: This would add about $262 million in potential selling pressure at current prices, while the entire market’s daily volume is only $16 million. The severity of supply-demand imbalance is evident; unless demand explodes, prices will remain under pressure.

Technical Rebound Opportunity from Double Bottom Pattern

Despite weak fundamentals, technical analysis indicates Pi Network may experience a short-term rebound. The daily chart shows Pi Coin’s price bottomed at $0.1952, the lowest level since October and December last year. It formed a double bottom pattern with a neckline at $0.2823. The double bottom is a classic reversal pattern in technical analysis; when the price tests the same support twice and stabilizes, it often signals a trend reversal.

In recent weeks, due to persistent percentage price oscillators (PPO) and relative strength index (RSI) rising, the token has formed a bullish divergence. Bullish divergence occurs when the price makes new lows but technical indicators do not, indicating weakening selling pressure and potential for buyers to regain control. This divergence in oversold zones is often a reliable short-term rebound signal.

Therefore, the token may rebound and potentially reach the important resistance at $0.2500. If it successfully breaks above the double bottom neckline at $0.2823, the upside could open toward $0.35. However, if it falls below the key support at $0.1952, the bullish view will be invalidated, and the price could accelerate downward to $0.15 or lower.

For traders, current Pi Network is more suitable for short-term speculation rather than long-term investment. While technicals suggest a short-term rebound possibility, the structural issues in fundamentals remain unresolved. Aggressive traders can try small positions around $0.20 with stop-loss below $0.1950 and target at $0.2500, with a risk-reward ratio of about 1:2.5. Conservative investors should wait for a clear breakout above the $0.2823 neckline before entering or avoid this highly illiquid and weak fundamental asset altogether.