Bitfinex Alpha #182: Bitcoin has fallen over 30% from its peak, and the price bottom is still difficult to confirm.

Bitcoin has recently experienced a sharp decline, and the market has yet to show significant signs of bottoming out. (Background: After Bitcoin's crash, are miners faring better?) (Supplementary background: Is China’s crypto ban failing? Reuters reports that Bitcoin mining has seen a computing power increase of 14%, returning to the position of the world’s third-largest mining nation.) Bitcoin has officially recorded a fourth consecutive week of decline, marking a rare extended downturn not seen in over 500 days. This pullback is more significant both in magnitude and signals. Over the past month, Bitcoin has cumulatively fallen by 30.6%, exceeding the 24% drop observed during its consolidation period in 2024. Currently, the price of Bitcoin has retraced nearly 36% from its historical peak. This downturn is not only reflected in the charts but is also deeply rooted in on-chain behavior. Short-term holders, typically the group most sensitive to fluctuations, are engaging in capitulation selling at one of the fastest rates since the FTX collapse. The realized losses of these recent buyers have soared to $523 million daily, highlighting the excessive chip density accumulated in the $106,000 to $118,000 range. The broader market structure is also worth noting. Bitcoin has once again led the stock market to peak, continuing a pattern observed in early 2025, which may suggest that traditional markets still have room for correction. In the crypto derivatives market, the pressure of losses remains heavy. Following a recorded loss of $19.2 billion on October 10, an additional $3.9 billion was added last week. This scale of deleveraging underscores the deep pressure that the futures and perpetual contracts markets are currently facing. Typically reliable seasonal effects have also failed to provide support this round. Although historically, the average rise in November has reached 40%, this month is currently tracking at -21.3%, and October recorded its first negative close in seven years. Meanwhile, last week’s economic indicators from the United States reflected a trend toward moderation rather than momentum, characterized by stable but noticeably cooling labor conditions, cautious consumer attitudes, and ongoing weakness in the real estate sector. The long-delayed September employment report showed that non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, but the unemployment rate ticked up slightly, further reinforcing the consensus that the labor market is cooling at a controllable pace. In the absence of new inflation data ahead of the December 9-10 FOMC meeting, this data has also increased the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates unchanged. At the same time, consumer confidence in November has noticeably weakened, revealing the increasingly severe pressures brought about by credit tightening and declining purchasing power; while New York Federal Reserve President John Williams' dovish remarks, although not accompanied by new economic data, briefly boosted market expectations for a rate cut in December. However, real estate indicators remain clearly pessimistic: builder confidence has fallen into contraction territory for the 19th consecutive month, with buyer traffic remaining sluggish, and with deteriorating purchasing power, price concessions are becoming more common. Overall, under high borrowing costs, the U.S. economy continues to cool at a moderate but persistent pace, compounded by policy uncertainty and fragile market sentiment, posing challenges for consumers and the housing market outlook. In the crypto space, last week saw significant progress in regulation, sovereign adoption, and corporate strategies. In the U.S., the White House is advancing the IRS's review process to join the OECD's “Global Crypto Asset Reporting Framework (CARF)”, indicating that the U.S. is moving towards stricter regulation of overseas crypto holdings; meanwhile, El Salvador made headlines by purchasing 1,090 Bitcoins (approximately $100 million) in a single day, continuing to deepen its long-term strategy despite the ongoing IMF loan controversy. These developments collectively highlight the convergence of regulation, sovereign allocation, and institutional adjustments, which continue to shape the structural evolution of the crypto market. Related reports: Japanese netizen's father passed away, “Bitcoin inheritance” worth 100 million yen, has to pay 62 million yen in taxes? Why isn’t the money in Bitcoin anymore? <Bitfinex Alpha #182> Bitcoin has fallen over 30% from its peak, but the price bottom remains difficult to confirm. This article was first published in BlockTempo, the most influential blockchain news media.