Solana (SOL) Price Prediction: Trump's tariff remarks caused SOL to fall 22% this month, with long positions betting on the Fed's rate cut expectations.

After President Donald Trump announced a decision to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese imports, shaking the global market, the sentiment in the Crypto Assets market sharply deteriorated, temporarily hindering the alts season. Solana (SOL) was the first to be affected, with its value dropping by 22% over the past 30 days, currently hovering around $187. The market's fear and greed index has swiftly shifted from “Greed” (62) to “Fear” (33), yet analysts still pin their hopes for a long positions recovery on the upcoming U.S. inflation report and the Fed's interest rate cut actions this week.

Market Sentiment Takes a Sharp Turn: The Macroeconomic Dilemma Behind SOL's Inability to Set New Highs

Solana's recent lackluster performance stands in stark contrast to its peers, as BNB and Ethereum have both successfully reached new all-time highs.

· The direct impact of macro shocks: Trump's sudden tariff measures are the main reason for the sharp deterioration of market sentiment. This uncertainty has triggered widespread sell-offs, particularly putting pressure on volatile alts like SOL.

· On-chain growth stagnation: On-chain data shows that the growth of the Solana ecosystem has recently stagnated, which is considered an important factor for the token's failure to reach a new high of 300 dollars and underperform against peers in this cycle. Some early holders have begun to gradually sell Solana (SOL) to balance risks and secure phase profits.

Fed Interest Rate Cut Expectations: Key Support for Market Risk Assets

The market generally believes that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the upcoming FOMC meeting. This expectation has been a key baseline scenario supporting risk assets, including Solana.

· Tariff and inflation risks: However, Trump's actions to raise tariffs brought potential inflation risks, which may prompt the Fed to reassess its loose monetary policy, and could even delay or completely cancel its interest rate cut plans.

· Suppression of risk assets: Any signs of tightening monetary policy are unfavorable for risk assets including Solana, as the market previously anticipated that lower interest rates would drive altcoin prices higher.

· Analyst Confidence: Despite the uncertainty, FedWatch data shows that 99% of analysts believe the Fed will proceed with its planned interest rate cuts. This strong confidence in rate cuts is an important support for the market not collapsing completely.

Technical Outlook: SOL Key Support Bounces, But Buying Interest Weakens

The daily chart shows that Solana has rebounded from the trend line support level of 175 dollars, which has historically served as a key support and resistance area.

(Source: TradingView)

· Support for long positions outlook: As long as the price can maintain above the key level of $175, the outlook for SOL remains bullish, with the potential to push the token closer to $200 again in the short term. If you wish to buy SOL without submitting identification, you can choose anonymous or KYC-free options. Such transactions are typically conducted through decentralized platforms, which, while providing high freedom, require attention to ensure the credibility of the counterparty and the security of the platform.

· Concerns about weakening buying momentum: Although the trading volume during the initial rebound was once above average, the volume has decreased as SOL tested the same area a few days ago. This indicates that buying interest may be waning, increasing the risk of a stronger pullback in the future.

· RSI Buy Signal: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) appears to be about to rise above the 14-day moving average, which is typically interpreted as a buy signal, providing some technical support for a short-term upward trend.

Conclusion

Against the backdrop of macro shocks causing market panic, the fall in Solana prices provides a key observation point for investors. If the Fed can implement interest rate cuts as the market expects, the current panic selling is likely to be seen as a good buying opportunity rather than a reversal of the trend. However, if the Fed changes its monetary policy due to inflation risks from tariffs, the bullish outlook for Solana will face severe tests. For investors, the support level at $175 is crucial; if it falls below this level, the bearish outlook will be confirmed.

Disclaimer: This article is for news information only and does not constitute any investment advice. The crypto market is highly volatile, and investors should make decisions cautiously.