PumpFun khối lượng giao dịch vượt 20 tỷ nhưng lại giảm mạnh! Bong bóng đầu cơ hay cơ hội mua đáy tốt?

PumpFun on January 6 reached a new DEX trading volume milestone of $2.03 billion, but PUMP token plummeted 18% within 24 hours to $0.00217. Top 100 holders increased holdings by only 0.87%, signaling weak whale confidence. Technical recovery requires a 50% gain to reclaim losses, with support at $0.00212. The extreme divergence between trading volume and price reveals a fragile, speculation-dominated structure.

Why PumpFun’s Record Trading Volume Became a Sell Signal

(Source: DefiLlama)

PumpFun achieved a $2.03 billion DEX trading volume milestone on January 6, an exceptionally rare figure in decentralized exchanges that typically signals project mainstreaming. However, the PUMP price reaction was completely opposite—not only did it fail to extend gains, it crashed 18% within 24 hours of the announcement. This abnormal phenomenon reveals a critical issue: surging platform usage has not translated into token demand.

(Source: Santiment)

Behind the trading volume spike lies a temporary burst of user activity. Active address data shows that PumpFun did attract masses of new users and traders when hitting the trading volume milestone. However, behavioral patterns of these participants expose speculative nature—they rushed in to ride the hype wave, not based on recognition of long-term project value. When prices began retreating, these users rapidly exited positions, causing active addresses to quickly shrivel.

This classic “sell the news” pattern is commonplace in crypto markets. Major milestones often trigger profit-taking by early investors and short-term traders, especially when market sentiment is already overheated. PumpFun’s situation is more extreme because record trading volume should be the strongest bullish signal, yet instead became the biggest sell catalyst. This divergence indicates market participants view this event as an exit opportunity rather than a reason to add positions.

At a deeper level, PumpFun faces a core problem: decoupling between token economics and platform usage. High trading volume means increased platform fee revenue, but if this revenue isn’t returned to PUMP holders through buybacks, burns, or profit-sharing mechanisms, the token lacks fundamental price support. Investors increasingly recognize this structural flaw, so they remain unwilling to hold tokens long-term even as platform business thrives.

Top 100 Holders’ Meager 0.87% Increase Exposes Confidence Crisis

(Source: Nansen)

Behavior of top 100 PUMP holders is the most reliable indicator of genuine market sentiment. Over the past week, these whale-level investors increased total holdings by only 0.87%, a negligible gain that is barely measurable in crypto markets. Compared to the typical 3-5% accumulation by whales during price corrections in other projects, PumpFun’s data reveals major holders lack confidence in a rebound.

The significance of whale accumulation lies in their typically superior access to insider information and professional analysis capabilities. When large holders choose not to add positions during price declines, it often signals they see risks the retail crowd doesn’t. In PumpFun’s case, the meager 0.87% increase may reflect several possibilities: First, whales believe current prices haven’t adequately reflected risk; Second, they harbor doubts about the project’s long-term business model; Third, they’re awaiting clearer reversal signals before entering.

Key Differences Between Whale and Retail Behavior

Time Horizon: Whales focus on 3-6 month trends, retail chases 1-3 day volatility

Information Advantage: Large holders have channels to access project teams and market makers, monitoring liquidity shifts

Operational Discipline: Professional investors maintain caution pending clear signals, avoiding FOMO-driven trades

Weak whale accumulation poses major obstacles to PumpFun’s rebound prospects. Without sustained large capital inflows for support, any price advance becomes heavily dependent on retail short-term sentiment, a structure prone to rapid reversal during market volatility. Historical data shows whale-unsupported rebounds typically last no more than 3-5 days with limited upside.

Technical Challenges and Rebound Conditions

(Source: Trading View)

PUMP currently trades near $0.00217, holding above the critical support at $0.00212. This support level has been tested three times over the past two weeks, holding firm each time, indicating decent buy-side interest at this level. However, holding support doesn’t guarantee rebounds, as current price structure shows downward pressure continues accumulating.

For recovery, PUMP needs a 50% rally to return to December high regions. This gain requirement is highly challenging in the current market environment. First, 50% gains typically require major positive catalysts or sustained buy-side inflows, yet the 0.87% increase by top 100 holders shows such support doesn’t exist. Second, technical indicators like RSI and MACD currently sit in neutral-bearish territory, showing no strong reversal signals.

Should selling pressure persist, price could breach $0.00212 support and test secondary support at $0.00191. This level represents important trading density from early December; breaching it opens greater downside space. In worst-case scenarios, PUMP could retest the $0.0015-$0.0017 range, implying 20-30% further decline from current levels.

Bullish scenarios aren’t completely impossible but require strict conditions. First, top 100 holders must increase holdings above 3%, signaling whale confidence recovery. Second, daily trading volume must stabilize above $1 billion coupled with price gains, not declines. Third, PUMP must break above $0.00242 resistance and establish footing—this level represents recent dense high clusters. Only when all three conditions simultaneously materialize can trend reversal be confirmed; otherwise all bounces should be viewed as opportunities to trim positions at higher prices.