A16z Fundador: A revolução tecnológica de IA é ainda maior do que a da internet na altura! Revelando o estado atual dos lucros da indústria e os obstáculos regulatórios

Silicon Valley VC a16z Founder Marc Andreessen: AI Revolution Surpasses Internet, Comparable to “Invention of Electricity”

Silicon Valley venture capitalist a16z founder Marc Andreessen pointed out in a recent interview video that AI is a civilization revolution that transcends internet scale and is comparable to the “invention of electricity.” Currently, AI companies are experiencing unprecedented revenue explosions, but the industry is undergoing dynamic megachanges characterized by “large models leading, small models chasing,” evolving into a competition of national destiny between China and the US. He also observed that despite public panic about AI replacing jobs, data shows people have already fully embraced AI in their lives. Finally, he shared that deliberately maintaining a company image of bold speech and even controversy is to attract entrepreneurs equally brave and principled as themselves, thereby maintaining their position as industry leader.

Scale and Nature of AI Revolution: An 80-Year Leap in Civilization

Andreessen pointed out that AI is the largest technological revolution he has witnessed in his lifetime, with impact far exceeding the internet and comparable to the inventions of electricity, microprocessors, and even the wheel. He traced back to the 1930s during the nascent period of computer science, noting a critical debate that existed then: one faction advocated establishing “adding machines” based on logic and arithmetic (represented by IBM’s predecessor), while another attempted to simulate human neural networks.

Ultimately, constrained by technology and hardware of the time, the computer route dominated the world for 80 years, transforming computers into cold mathematical machines. Meanwhile, neural networks became marginalized academic pursuits. Until ChatGPT’s emergence three years ago marked the formal return of this 80-year-dormant “artificial cognition” pathway to center stage. Andreessen emphasized that this growth is entirely different from past tech bubbles—it represents genuine revenue explosion where customer demand directly converts to bank deposits. He stated bluntly: “This fills the missing soul from 80 years of computer industry, finally allowing machines to communicate with us in human ways, growth speed unseen in my career.”

Business Models and Market Trends: AI as Downloadable Intelligence

At the commercial application level, Andreessen analyzes AI’s unique “carrier characteristics.” Unlike the internet revolution requiring decades to lay physical infrastructure like fiber optics and base stations, AI relies on existing global networks—everyone can own cutting-edge technology through simple downloads. He strongly advocates the “tokens by the drink” model, which represents liberation for startups: startups no longer need to shoulder massive fixed capital expenditures during early stages, and developers can access the world’s top intelligence anytime, like buying a beverage.

Andreessen further predicts that AI price declines will far exceed Moore’s Law, representing a “super-deflation” phenomenon currently happening. He offers unique insights specifically addressing market GPU anxiety: in capitalist markets, any physically replicable resources driven by massive profits ultimately face overcapacity. He expresses confidence: “Whenever physically replicable things face shortages, history proves they eventually turn to overcapacity, with unit costs plummeting like falling stones over the next decade.” This means intelligence will transform from expensive scarce resources into cheap public goods with unlimited demand elasticity.

Technology Trends: Large Models Lead, Small Models Chase Rapidly

Technical pathways are exhibiting a “large models opening paths, small models harvesting” dynamic cycle. Although top “God Models” continue pushing intelligence ceilings, small models are completing performance compression at astonishing speeds. Andreessen predicts future industry structure will be pyramid-shaped: top comprises few computationally massive cloud neural hubs, below are billions of specialized small models embedded in various physical devices.

The rise of small models will free AI from expensive cloud services. Andreessen believes NVIDIA’s current high profits are “attack signals” to global competitors, calling all forces to compete and democratize computing power. He observes a startling turning point: “For example, China’s Kimmy model demonstrates GPT-5-level reasoning capability, yet shrinks down to run on two MacBooks. This attracts enterprises greatly because you can choose not paying expensive cloud fees and run locally instead.” This downward transfer of intelligence will spawn unprecedented application-layer explosions.

( a16z 2026 Outlook: Startups Remain Key Drivers of Consumer AI, LLM Audience Segmentation Takes Shape

China-US Competition and Policy Regulations: Leadership is National Security

Geopolitically, Andreessen believes the AI race is essentially a survival battle between America and China, with Washington recognizing this involves ultimate foundations of military and economic security. China’s strength in open-source models and robotics supply chains gives this competition no retreat path. However, Andreessen expresses extreme concern about America’s internal policy trends, with 1,200 AI proposals currently across US states, some extremely unfriendly to innovation, such as California’s SB1047, mimicking the EU’s suffocating regulatory framework, which has already stalled local development—even Meta and Apple dare not release new features in Europe.

He believes excessive regulations prevent non-existent threats while killing immediate competitiveness. This is not merely technical but strategic-level miscalculation. He stated: “SB1047 attempts to impose unlimited downstream responsibility on open-source developers. This is suicide, self-restraint in competition.” Federal government must reclaim regulatory sovereignty; otherwise America is self-mutilating in a marathon, handing leadership advantage to opponents.

Venture Capital Perspectives and Personal Philosophy

Facing this chaotic and high-risk revolution, Andreessen shares a16z’s response logic: “diversified bets” amid uncertainty. He simultaneously points out society’s interesting fissure in public opinion: polls show panic about AI, but actual behavior shows public is more dependent on AI than ever. This “oral opposition, bodily support” phenomenon reveals technology adoption’s irreversibility.

Andreessen concludes that a16z chooses to maintain bold stances on public issues to attract courageous entrepreneurs. He believes at this critical moment, silence is absence from the future: “Polls show voters panicking, thinking AI destroys everything. But looking at ‘revealed preferences,’ they’re all using AI……they use it writing code, seeing doctors, even dating help.” In Andreessen’s eyes, true winners will be those seeing humanity’s genuine needs clearly and daring to define destiny amid noise.

This article, “a16z Founder: AI Technological Revolution Greater Than Internet Back Then! Revealing Industry Profitability Status and Regulatory Bottlenecks” first appeared in 鏈新聞 ABMedia.

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