BlackAndWhite123

Once the meme coin trend has ended and no more volume is added, don't participate anymore. It's mostly disgusting patterns of repeatedly washing long and short contracts; ordinary people can't compete with the market makers.
Investing isn't about getting up where you fell; it’s about avoiding that spot and being careful not to fall again.

Most of the people still remaining in the crypto world are probably those who have made money in this circle before but have lost it all now.
And then there are some newcomers attracted by the myth of getting rich quickly who want to come in and make a fortune.
The proportion of users who have previously made money but are now zeroed out and in debt might be higher.
Because newcomers might leave after losing once or twice.
But users who have made money before will live long-term in the memory of "having made money before."
And this kind of memory can easily cause people to become unb

BTC 82k can basically be considered the top of this wave.
From the weekly chart, if it drops, it will be around 67k.
So from now on, every rebound is an opportunity for the bears to short.

The biggest feeling in the past few months is not a bear market, but whether the crypto circle is still worth continuing to sit at this table.
Currently, aside from $BTC and stablecoins, everything else is noise, even the biggest buyer of BTC, MSTR, is on the verge of collapse.
A sign that a circle is starting to rot: fish get exposed, sharks eat each other. The crypto world is now in this state.
Retail investors are tired of getting cut, KOLs are washing each other, VCs are investing in their own people.
Zero-sum games have fewer and fewer funds left, bosses are closing doors and div

BTC has broken through 80k and has been consolidating at high levels, with trading volume also increasing, clearly indicating no new funds are coming in to take over. Most altcoins are half-dead, and both the US stock market and the Chinese A-shares are also bleeding. Plus, with the current bear market environment, weekly resistance plus the realization of good news, it's obvious that the rally is mainly a bull trap.
Wait for one more push to give a good entry point, then it's time to set up short positions.

The recent market trend still follows a bit of a pattern.
Every afternoon, short positions are taken, then from the opening of the US stock market until early morning, more positions are added, and around noon to the afternoon, the short positions continue. But the specific timing can't be precisely mapped out, so you can only follow this pattern and gradually explore it.
Then suddenly, there's a rapid decline in the market, of course, it could also be an increase, but the probability of a decline is slightly higher.
This segment of the market should still be quite easy to pick up some l

I see a lot of people saying, why is “second brother Ethereum” so weak?
Actually, if you look back at the start of this round of market momentum, it was pretty strong. It was completely dragged down by KelpDAO—because when it came to the DeFi protocol, it had been very strong from the beginning. After this incident, it just kept getting weaker and weaker. You could call this a “butterfly effect.” At first, everyone was just watching. Later, if you don’t buy, I don’t buy—so nobody buys.
Actually, there’s no real need to stubbornly fight for the rebound. This thing is just a soft target. Sho

Shanzhai top-fishing shorting is best avoided on those with high control over the market, because the biggest advantage of drawing lines on data is that each pullback makes you feel like it's about to collapse, but in the end, they pull it higher to trap people.
A typical example is the Rave siren from a while ago and the recent Lab, these projects are basically projects with alpha and contracts. You can see that the trading volume on alpha is bleak, but the contract trading volume remains high, because there is no spot selling pressure for the main players to use at will, to harvest fees ba

Next week seems to be a critical juncture. China-U.S. talks, preliminary agreement between Iran and the U.S., new Federal Reserve Chair taking office. All major events are converging at this point, seemingly deliberately arranged. Some people want to phase out certain issues and then move on to the next stage of work.
This China-U.S. meeting, I feel, has a bit of the flavor of a "wartime temporary alliance," everyone fears that in a crisis "the fire will burn the entire forest," and everyone wants to protect their own fundamental interests.
A strong alliance can ensure that the foundation

When did retail investors truly start becoming "bag holders"?
Actually, it didn't happen suddenly in a certain year, but rather the pricing power gradually shifted from the public market to the fundraising stage.
The earliest ones, like the E group, ICO price was $0.31, and the secondary market was just over $0.4; the primary and secondary prices were almost the same, so even if you missed the earliest round, your costs weren't too far apart, and the upside was fully reserved for the market later on. Between 2018 and 2020, for example, SOL, there was a clear cost stratification: seed round at

Bitcoin's current price, in my opinion, has almost reached the rebound limit.
Funding rates have been consistently negative, and the market may generally believe that the number of short positions exceeds long positions, but this is not an absolute indicator.
It is likely due to a large number of hedging and offset positions.
However, these hedging positions can be opened, and if the counterpart longs face a decline, it could be uncomfortable.
Moreover, the funding rate is now hovering around 0, not very extreme, so there is no sign of extreme bearishness.
The current volatility has

Bitcoin’s main function is to hedge against fiat currency inflation.
Over the past more than 10 years, this function has been very successful.
It will be the same in the future.
Unfortunately, most people first encounter Bitcoin and, due to both spiritual and material poverty, miss the opportunity to become extremely wealthy.
Also, why play around with scam coins? Because only scam coins can multiply a thousand or ten thousand times in a short period.
Why trade contract futures? Because with little capital, using leverage can quickly make you rich.
Unfortunately, both of these are

$DOGE the cryptocurrency that cost me the most money
These past few days, it bottomed out and rebounded, and once again it’s back in the mainstream. The last surge was mainly because of Musk—also, the government efficiency department, abbreviated as D.O.G.E—yet even Dogecoin couldn’t manage to break to new highs. This time there’s no real positive catalyst or material good news at all; it’s only being propped up by leveraged capital and FOMO sentiment.
Overseas, Dogecoin is inflationary.
Back in the 2021 bull market, its market cap was only a little over 120 billion. Now it’s close to 1

The rebound is over, and the bearish outlook continues. The support around 74,000 may not hold for long. In the end, you’ll likely need to look to the support near 70k. Bulls, be mindful of the risk of further downside.

It is said that many US stock market making teams have entered the crypto space this year. In the past, market-making for altcoins in the crypto world was basically just a quick pump and dump. Now, because these institutional teams have entered, this year we have already seen coins that have increased by dozens or even hundreds of times. Such opportunities will definitely continue to appear in the future.
Coins like these can all be collectively called "monster coins." The early stage of dealing with monster coins is to learn how to identify "abnormalities."
For example, unusually high con

The current market situation, it doesn't fall properly when it drops, and it doesn't rise properly when it goes up, just going back and forth deceiving.

Fu Peng’s famous remarks in 2023 and 2024:
The RMB will inevitably depreciate against the US dollar, breaking 8, possibly reaching 9.
A group of members heavily re-bet on the US dollar/RMB exchange rate—and that’s how it ended.
Gold will inevitably crash, and the global economy will keep rising steadily—except for China.
A group of members went all-in to short gold—and that’s how it ended.
China’s manufacturing industry is bound to relocate to Vietnam, and Vietnam’s manufacturing industry will rise in the future.
A group of members moved their factories one after another, went bank

The fundamental of investing has never been guessing ups and downs, gambling on emotions, or looking at short-term market trends, but rather being a long-term partner in the business.
Focus all your energy on the business model, corporate culture, moat, and profitability; if you can roughly estimate the free cash flow over the next ten years, you've already completed the most core part of investing.
Short-term market fluctuations are driven by emotions, capital, and speculation, with no规律, and are completely unpredictable.
Fools waste time on them, only causing internal conflict and chas

There is a counterintuitive principle: when you're making money, be frugal, cautious with spending, and avoid overspending;
and when you're losing money, don't be stingy with consumption and personal expenses, or you'll lose the motivation to earn.
Greed is a good thing, but within the market, you should also cut your positions and not double down;
Martingale strategies are not advisable.

No matter what the market conditions are, there are always people who can make money.
If you compare yourself to others, you'll only fall into anxiety.
Personally, I think this kind of internal struggle is actually completely unnecessary.
It's better to relax and enjoy the weekend.