LighthouseSays

#Google Tesla Q2 earnings will be decided tonight
《Mid-year exam for the logic of monetizing AI》
At around 12:00 a.m. on the 23rd, Google is set to release its latest earnings report. This report is not only about Google alone—it is, in essence, the market-wide mid-year exam for the “AI monetization logic,” and a barometer of sentiment for the recent U.S. stock market, and even for the entire macro risk-asset complex.
Current pricing versus expectations
The consensus expectations from Wall Street are already fully priced in: total revenue is about $116.8 billion (year-over-year +21%), and

《Mid-year Big Exam for AI Monetization Logic》
At around midnight on the 23rd, Google is about to release its latest earnings report. This report is not only about Google itself; in essence, it is the mid-year big exam for the entire market’s “AI monetization logic,” and a sentiment barometer for recent U.S. stocks, and even for macro risk assets as a whole.
Current market pricing versus expectations
The consensus expectations from Wall Street are already fully dialed in: total revenue of about $116.8 billion (year-over-year +21%), with an expected EPS of $2.89 per share. But this is just the s

Why didn’t the first “ceasefire” window after the U.S.-Iran tensions reignite cool oil prices?
Yesterday, Iran first proposed a 10-day ceasefire.
In the evening, Trump wasn’t interested.
(Probably because Iran opened crude oil short positions, and Trump’s long positions haven’t been closed yet.)
Today, the U.S. Secretary of State said he’s open to talks.
But these messages didn’t cool oil prices—instead, prices kept rising.
This is likely a “spokesperson” issue; it’s only staying at the level of what’s said.
But since this momentum is there, more short-term ceasefire talk will likely show up i

Why didn’t the first “ceasefire” window after the renewed tensions between the US and Iran cool oil prices?
Yesterday, Iran first proposed a 10-day ceasefire
In the evening, Trump wasn’t interested
(Probably because Iran opened crude oil short positions, and Trump’s long positions haven’t been closed yet)
Today, the US Secretary of State said he is open to negotiations
But these updates didn’t cool oil prices—instead, prices kept rising
This should be due to the “statements” being off, and it’s only staying at the level of words
But since there are signs like this, more short-term ceasefire no

Today, the Fed’s megaphone Nick Timiraos disclosed an important dataset (as shown).
This time, he almost pinpointed the core PCE with precision to 0.18%, and the overall PCE also directly gave a negative reading of -0.07%.
This isn’t a forecast.
This is the Fed, via his mouth, leaking the answer to the market in advance.
The so-called “value” of the new Fed communications agency is fully reflected at this moment—rather than saying it’s a financial reporter’s scenario analysis, it’s more like the policy side is laying the final-mile groundwork for expectation management.
For us trader

Central bank reserves are long-term; long-term they are a positive tailwind.
They have much less to do with short-term price action.
But in the near term, the downside room is limited.
You should know that the world’s major non-US central banks began stockpiling gold with the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war.
Back then, the U.S. froze and sanctioned Russia, prompting some non-US countries to “sell U.S. Treasuries and buy gold.”
They have been stockpiling every year.
$XAU
{future}(XAUUSDT)

Central bank reserves are long-term—so they’re a long-term positive.
They have little to do with short-term price action.
But in the near term, downside room is limited.
To understand this, note that many non-US central banks have been stockpiling gold since the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war.
At that time, the US froze and sanctioned Russia, prompting some non-US countries to “sell US Treasuries and buy gold.”
They’ve been stockpiling every year.
$XAUt

I saw a short-selling signal this afternoon.
Open a short $SKHY
After the second rebound in the evening, it reached the target level.
Why open a short?
Because it’s a technical signal.
Why did it reach the target so smoothly?
Maybe it’s because the recently used [margin/position] is prone to volatility.
On the flip side, you can try a quick long here.
【The above is only my personal opinion for record】

Saw a short-selling signal this afternoon:
Open a short $SKHY .
After a second rebound tonight, it will reach the target zone.
Why open a short?
Because it’s a technical signal.
Why give the target?
Maybe because it recently likes to be volatile.
【The above is only my personal opinion record】

Core CPI release: 0%
US Treasury yields drop instantly
A huge positive!
After grabbing long positions in gold following the non-farm payrolls, it didn’t disappoint anyone
Short-term targets: 4110-4140
Long-term targets: 4300-4500
$XAU

At 20:30 tonight, the U.S. June CPI will be released. The market’s median expectation for core CPI is 0.2% month-over-month. If core CPI prints at 0.3% or higher, the market will further price in the risk of additional Fed rate hikes.
Then at 22:00, Fed Chair Warsh will testify before Congress. Early the next day at 00:30, Waller will also deliver an economic outlook speech.
The current macro backdrop is clearly unfavorable for risk assets:
- The conflict in the Strait of Hormuz has escalated again;
- Brent crude rose to above $85 at one point;
- U.S. 10-year Treasury yields climbed to about 4

Tonight at 20:30, the U.S. will release June CPI, and the median market expectation for core CPI is 0.2% month-over-month. If core CPI comes in at 0.3% or higher, the market will further price in the risk of Federal Reserve rate hikes.
Then at 22:00, Fed Chair Warsh will testify before Congress, and early the next day at 00:30, Waller will also deliver an economic outlook speech.
The macro backdrop is clearly unfavorable for risk assets right now:
The conflict in the Strait of Hormuz has escalated again;
Brent crude oil once rose above $85;
The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note rose to a