【Fed Rate Decision Approaching, Will BTC Reverse Course?】
After a series of small bullish steps, BTC has finally reached the top of the descending flag channel near the 75000 resistance zone—an important pressure level we've mentioned several times. As expected, it encountered resistance at the highs, currently leaving a small upper wick. 【See Chart 1】
From the 4-hour timeframe, the pullback from highs shows a rather obvious divergence, and the price action needs a correction and consolidation.
However, is this the end of this rebound? We need to focus on whether the daily close can hold above 75000, this critical level. If it can close above and consolidate, the market will likely move toward 80000. If it continues to trade below 75000, the risk of a top will increase significantly.
We need to pay close attention to the support at 73000. If this level is effectively broken on a downside move, the probability of this rebound ending is very high! 【See Chart 2】
From a personal subjective perspective, I'm leaning more bearish. First, after touching the important resistance level, there was no clean breakthrough; instead, the price fell back into the flag pattern, consuming too much bullish strength.
Second, the Federal Reserve rate decision meeting is on the 19th. A rate cut is basically impossible at this meeting, and instead, we might hear negative news due to inflation caused by war-driven oil price increases.
BTC has also risen quite a bit recently. Once bearish catalysts emerge and the stock market falls, BTC's downside will be even more severe!
Therefore, at the current stage, focus on defense. Avoid overconfidence and reckless gains-chasing. Don't chase rallies or panic sell!
Trading Strategy: Currently hold spot positions, use 73000 as a defense level, and plan to exit in batches above 78000 for swing trading.
#美联储3月议息会议 $BTC #比特币突破7.5万美元 $ETH
After a series of small bullish steps, BTC has finally reached the top of the descending flag channel near the 75000 resistance zone—an important pressure level we've mentioned several times. As expected, it encountered resistance at the highs, currently leaving a small upper wick. 【See Chart 1】
From the 4-hour timeframe, the pullback from highs shows a rather obvious divergence, and the price action needs a correction and consolidation.
However, is this the end of this rebound? We need to focus on whether the daily close can hold above 75000, this critical level. If it can close above and consolidate, the market will likely move toward 80000. If it continues to trade below 75000, the risk of a top will increase significantly.
We need to pay close attention to the support at 73000. If this level is effectively broken on a downside move, the probability of this rebound ending is very high! 【See Chart 2】
From a personal subjective perspective, I'm leaning more bearish. First, after touching the important resistance level, there was no clean breakthrough; instead, the price fell back into the flag pattern, consuming too much bullish strength.
Second, the Federal Reserve rate decision meeting is on the 19th. A rate cut is basically impossible at this meeting, and instead, we might hear negative news due to inflation caused by war-driven oil price increases.
BTC has also risen quite a bit recently. Once bearish catalysts emerge and the stock market falls, BTC's downside will be even more severe!
Therefore, at the current stage, focus on defense. Avoid overconfidence and reckless gains-chasing. Don't chase rallies or panic sell!
Trading Strategy: Currently hold spot positions, use 73000 as a defense level, and plan to exit in batches above 78000 for swing trading.
#美联储3月议息会议 $BTC #比特币突破7.5万美元 $ETH
