ONDO is facing a significant unlocking pressure this week. On Tuesday, 1.94 billion tokens will be released, accounting for about 134% of the circulating supply, roughly $530 million at the $0.277 price level, which is quite heavy.

I still remember the unlocking event from January; it was smaller in scale ($737 million), yet it still caused a 25% drop. Even more painfully, the TVL actually hit a new high of $2.63 billion at that time, indicating that funds were increasing while prices were falling—such divergence is very risky.

The current situation is even more tense. Monthly active users are only 3.5 million, and long positions are particularly crowded (L/S ratio reaching 1.83). At the same time, they also have to deal with unlock waves from other projects like ARB and ZK, plus the FOMC meeting minutes to be released, leaving the market little room for buffer. If the $0.27 support level fails to hold, the next target could be $0.24. Position data shows the market is digesting this pressure, and the next few days will be critical.