How much will XRP fall to in 5 years? On-chain data tells you the truth.

Question

## The rise and fall with many twists and turns behind itThe recent market performance of XRP can be described as a roller coaster. After rising to a historical high of $3.65 following the SEC settlement, it immediately fell by 39%. What is the reason? This is not just a simple profit-taking.## Why don&#39;t banks use XRP at all?What is XRP designed for? Standardized cross-border payments. Ripple&#39;s payment network theoretically allows banks to transfer funds in seconds at a cost of just a few cents. Sounds appealing.But here is a painful fact: **banks do not necessarily have to use XRP**.- The Ripple payment network itself supports fiat settlements, so why take the risk using the highly volatile XRP?- Ripple itself launched the stablecoin RLUSD last year, with zero volatility, making it more suitable for payments.- Even holding XRP for a few hours can be a trap due to volatility for banks, which is poison for institutional users.In other words, the core use case of XRP—payments—has already been addressed by better alternatives.## Can ETFs Really Save XRP?The SEC now approves the XRP spot ETF, which is good news. But don&#39;t celebrate too early.Why can BTC benefit from ETFs? Because it has two attributes that XRP does not have:- **True Decentralization** (Bitcoin mining network is distributed) vs the centralized power of XRP (Ripple controls 40% of tokens, which gives it significant influence)- **Limited supply** (21 million cap) vs XRP&#39;s 10 billion, continuously released.Institutional investors buy BTC because they see it as **digital gold**. However, no one views XRP as a store of value, and ETFs won&#39;t change this perception.## Data Replay: Will History Repeat Itself?This is the most concerning part.- After XRP reached an all-time high in 2018, **it fell 95% in less than a year**.- The same problems still exist now (insufficient payment demand, centralization risks, lack of scarcity)- Market sentiment cycles often repeat## Price Prediction After 5 YearsBased on the above analysis, **XRP is likely to fall below $1**, and may even reach lower levels. This 39% decline may just be the beginning.## Bottom Line ThinkingThe story of XRP is interesting: a token that solves real problems, yet finds that those problems have already been addressed by other solutions. This misalignment often determines the long-term trajectory.