Kill the cottage

Author: Liu Jiaolian

This year’s Spring Festival did not repeat the bullish market of ‘breaking 50,000’ during the 2021 Spring Festival (Note: ‘breaking 50,000’ refers to breaking the historical high of $50,000), but instead experienced three consecutive declines on the fourth, fifth, and sixth days, plummeting from 105k to a low of nearly 90k, with a maximum decline of nearly 15%.

This caught many people who were eagerly anticipating the so-called Spring Festival market off guard. Just like the 1.24 Jiao Chain internal reference “Spring Festival is Coming” mentioned, a certain research institution proposed, “In the past 12 years, BTC has achieved positive returns during the Spring Festival period for 11 years, and the statistically impressive 83% hit rate proves the returns during this period.”

Then, as expected unexpectedly, this year’s Spring Festival obviously fell into the other 17%.

Yesterday, Jiao Chain’s weekly report for the 4th week of 2025, titled “The Fed Remains Watchful, This Cycle Seems Familiar”, has summarized the macro situation at the beginning of the Spring Festival in the past week. In fact, when we saw the Federal Reserve’s willingness to confront the White House to express their toughness, we should have a vague sense of foreboding and not have too high expectations for “continuing the music and dance”.

Actually, if you pull up the chart and take a look, the $90,000 level that BTC is currently testing with a pin, was pierced twice last year, on December 6, 2024, and this year on January 13, 2025.

This position is a new high-level support level since the violent pull-up since late November 2024. The range of 90k-110k constitutes a new horizontal shock consolidation zone.

New heights, new levels, and new norms have significantly climbed a step higher than the peak of 2021 and the height of 60,000-70,000 dollars after March 2024.

Bearish three attempts to break through, either it won’t go beyond three, and be counter-killed by the bulls, opening a new market; or defeat the bulls, kill off this new level, and return to the old battle line of $70,000.

However, BTC has not fallen down the stairs yet, it’s just a stumble, but it has hit the market hard. Many altcoins have crashed, resulting in a significant loss.

The copycat positions of Education Chain, some of which just turned losses into profits, have all fallen back into the pit again.

Just bear with it, what else can we do?

Is it too late to close the position and switch to BTC at this point?

Don’t wait until the storm comes to fix the roof that leaks.

What did you do early when the sun was shining?

When Jiao Chain was on the road, I thought of a question: why is failure often said to be the mother of success?

From an empirical perspective, scientific research indicates that people who have previously succeeded are obviously more likely to succeed again in terms of entrepreneurial success rate.

On the secondary market, many people gamble year after year and day after day. If they are not trading contracts, they are trading memes. However, they are just moving from one failure to another. Even if they occasionally make a small profit, they will quickly lose it again. The final result is basically a complete loss, and they can no longer turn the situation around. They are forced to leave the market and disappear completely, with no choice but to wash their hands of it.

Suddenly, the Education Chain seems to have figured out that the key to success from failure lies with oneself. It depends on whether one can learn from the lessons of failure, reflect and introspect, not to beat one’s chest or stamp one’s feet, not to be frustrated or remorseful, but to calmly transform failure into correction and improvement of one’s existing cognitive understanding, and to have more courage and strength to test the corrected and improved understanding in continued practice.

So there is a good saying: when you can’t get what you want, reflect on yourself.

From a psychological point of view, it is difficult for people to take others’ advice. In practice, you should not believe anyone. Many times, you must have a strong opinion and the courage to go it alone, in order to achieve great things.

However, this will bring a problem, which is the inability to carry out cognitive correction and improve the closed loop. The end result of being closed-minded and arrogant is failure.

You can only engage in closed-loop learning, learn from practice, and learn from failure.

The saying goes, ‘One doesn’t turn back until one hits the south wall.’ In fact, a person who turns back or takes a detour after hitting the south wall only once may already be exceptional.

So the saying goes, people teach each other, but they cannot teach; things teach people, and once taught, they will know.

In fact, Jiao Lian said that teaching is teaching people, which is also impossible for most people. Only by turning oneself into a person who actively engages in learning can one learn quickly, and only then can every failure be turned into a stepping stone on the road to success.