$BTC Looking back at the Russia-Ukraine war, as well as the previous Israel-Palestine and Israel-Iran conflicts, there are various wars every year that create noise. In reality, what truly affects BTC price is liquidity; everything else is just noise.

In my view, for the midterm elections, Trump would prefer the Middle East conflict to end before June. Once oil prices come down, it would be convenient to manage expectations for rate cuts, and the overall market could continue to ATH. This leaves less than 6 months for a pullback and consolidation.

The market will show direction by early May at the latest. Whether it plays out as a 1-2-3 pattern, a 2B breakout of the descending trendline, or another phase of decline to LTH-RP (this value keeps changing, from 38k at the start of the year to now running at 48k, and I estimate it should be above 50k by May), these are all excellent trading opportunities. I'm looking forward to breaking below long-term holder realized value, so I can accumulate enough cheap spot positions on the left side.

As for low-leverage positions, I'm still waiting for the right-side opportunity to appear. Currently, the MA120 price is 80952, and the STH-RP price is 85433. When BTC breaks through these two indicators on volume, I will unhesitatingly go all-in long. If it breaks down, I'll stop out and repeat mechanically. The backtested win rate is only 30%, but the profit/loss ratio exceeds 20, which is completely consistent with a trading system that chases momentum, cuts losses small, makes big profits, and compounds continuously.

In this round, I'm putting more energy into refining BTC on-chain data and trading systems, abandoning research into altcoin projects and FOMO, to make more stable money.