US Unemployment Rate Facing Further Upward Pressure:



February data shows that 11% of US small businesses list "weak sales" as a core operational challenge, with this proportion approaching the peak since 2020, ranking fourth among all issues, behind only taxes, workforce quality, and inflation pressure.

Over the past three years, this proportion has tripled, returning to typical levels during previous economic recessions. From historical patterns, small businesses, as the largest employer in the US job market, serve as a leading warning signal for rising unemployment rates.

This suggests that in the coming months, US unemployment rate may surge from the current 4.4% level to above 5%, marking a new high since the epidemic recovery phase in mid-2021.

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