03/18 Bitcoin Daily Report#美联储利率决议

Before the interest rate decision is released, Bitcoin's uptrend has temporarily stalled. Yesterday overnight, the short-term briefly broke through $75,000, then closed back below $74,000, ending the previous streak of 8 consecutive days of gains.

The current market focus remains on liquidity tightness issues. For example, considering multiple central banks adopting tightening or more hawkish language, when government bond yields rise, bond markets often absorb capital from other markets including cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin may face downward pressure, and recent upward momentum may also be lost. Currently, if the benchmark rate remains unchanged as market expectations suggest, traders may pay more attention to policy tone, dot plots, or forward guidance language, quickly pricing in expectations for the coming weeks. Possible paths for Bitcoin: 1. If the dot plot suggests two rate cuts, Bitcoin may rise at least 3%, and the price may stabilize above $75,000. 2. If rates remain unchanged with no clear directional guidance, the market may experience brief profit-taking behavior, causing prices to pull back and retest the $70,000 psychological level. 3. If hawkish language is severe and simultaneously expresses concern about oil price increases affecting inflation, signaling no rate cuts this year, Bitcoin may fall back toward the $65,000 region.

Technical Outlook: Multiple indicators show bullish momentum is weakening. The market is entering a brief neutral phase, with short-term showings of consolidation or directional uncertainty. Key Levels: 78,800 is a key structural resistance. If this level is broken, it may trigger a structural shift and form a stronger bullish pattern for the coming weeks. $70,200 is a psychological level. Since this price coincides with the 50-period moving average, if the price cannot move away from this level, most of the market will again fall into a hesitant consolidation phase, limiting further gains.