The latest Federal Reserve policy expectations have been released. As of January 20th, according to CME Fed Funds Futures data, the market estimates a 95% probability of holding interest rates steady this month, and only a 5% chance of a 25 basis point cut. This indicates that there is very limited room for policy adjustments in the short term.

Looking ahead to March, market expectations for a rate cut remain cautious. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut is 20.7%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate level is 78.4%. More aggressive expectations—cumulative 50 basis points—are almost negligible at only 0.9%.

This data reflects the market's cautious attitude towards Federal Reserve policies, with limited scope for rate cuts in the short term. For cryptocurrencies, a tightening monetary policy environment will continue to be an important market reference factor.