Tonight's Fed meeting, a 25 basis point rate cut is almost certain. But the real highlight is in the language— the policy statement is very likely to directly raise the bar for future rate cuts, signaling a hawkish stance.

There is still room for operations on the balance sheet, and tech stocks and US Treasuries are expected to diverge again. What will Bitcoin do? We will find out at 3 a.m. The market's bet this time is not whether rates will be cut, but whether the Fed will dare to continue easing in the future.