Market Viewpoints

91500 reached, dropped, then went back up

Yesterday when it was at 89, I posted a short-term bullish view

Then it dropped to 87700 (0.382), which made a lot of people panic

But I was in a meeting and didn’t see it

By the time I came back, the price had returned to 89000, but many people had already sold at the 87700 bottom

Then the price rose to around 91500. I closed my short-term long positions around here, which was the price level I expected

After that, the price dropped again to 89000 (a lot of people were already exhausted)

If I had been awake, I probably would have gone long again, but I was asleep

So when I woke up, I was flat in the short term, and the price had returned to 91500

I won’t chase longs here in the short term

One reason is that “Monday’s drop,” if it happens, is likely to occur in the evening

Another reason is that I’m still holding my long-term position (BTC average cost 99)

These are all my personal reasons. Everyone has a different position, so the strategies to implement are different

Not chasing longs in the short term doesn’t mean I’m bearish. In fact, I’m even bullish. It’s still the triangle of risk/reward ratio, win rate, and frequency.

On Thursday (FOMC), the exact time is 3 a.m. on the 11th, so there are actually about 3 days left

In 3 days, if we reach our expected 96500-98500, I think there’s still enough time

Therefore, it’s a very plausible scenario for the next few days before FOMC to be an uptrend until the above range

If a pullback occurs, that is, a pullback on Monday night, then I think Bitcoin could drop to around 87000 at the lowest

If that happens, I’ll consider going long in the short term

But since 87000 to 96500 is a big gap, it may overturn the conclusion of “rising to 96500 before FOMC”

That’s also why I put a question mark next to the second scenario

87000 may not reach 96500 or above, so if I go long there, I’ll have to take it step by step

Of course, currently, I think the first scenario is more likely

That means I’ll miss out on some of the short-term gains, but it’s not a big deal

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