Is market sentiment shifting? Just look at the latest data from Polymarket. The probability of a rate cut in December has surged to 93%, making it almost a sure thing. Interestingly, the likelihood of a “hold steady” scenario in January has reached 68%—that’s quite a rapid plot twist.

In the short term, if liquidity is released in December, it’s definitely a bullish signal for crypto. As funding costs drop, hot money looks for an outlet, and the digital asset market often absorbs a wave of liquidity. But don’t celebrate too soon—the expectation of a brake in January is right there, so the window for volatility might be short.

There are two approaches to take. Short-term traders can focus on the days around the December policy announcement; sentiment often peaks when the bullish news is realized, but don’t blindly chase the rally—waiting for a pullback confirmation or a clear trend before gradually entering mainstream assets is much safer. As for long-term holders, just hold onto quality assets; don’t worry too much about short-term noise, and wait for the monetary policy direction to become truly clear.

To put it simply: don’t chase the highs, build positions in batches, and manage your position sizes well. That way, no matter how the market moves, you’ll keep your cool.