# Is the recession really coming in 2025? Let's see what the data says.

Economists are now divided into two factions, arguing fiercely. One side says recession signals are everywhere: the US Q1 GDP contracted by 0.2%, the unemployment rate is expected to rise, 83% of CEOs predict a recession in the next 12-18 months, and the yield curve has been inverted for over two years... The other side says not to panic, the unemployment rate is only 4.2%, consumption is still growing, retail sales increased by 1.4% in March, and the Federal Reserve is keeping interest rates steady.

Interestingly, there is a term called "vibecession" – people feel pessimistic, but the economic data looks okay. It’s like feeling broke, but having a balance in your bank account.

But some professionals also remind us that a recession doesn't necessarily have to wait for an official announcement to count. The pressures of debt and bonds have already been systematically squeezing the economy, and some people are experiencing it now. The model from the New York Fed estimates a 51% probability of recession in the next year.

Instead of guessing when it will come, it is better to prepare now: cut unnecessary expenses, delay large purchases, pay off debts, and build an emergency savings. Because if it does come, the changes will be rapid.