Bitcoin Heading to $500K? Here's What Wall Street Actually Says (And What You Need to Know)

Question

Geoffrey Kendrick from Standard Chartered just dropped some bold price targets that have the crypto market buzzing. His thesis: Bitcoin could hit $500,000 by 2028 (up 455% from current ~$90K), and XRP could reach $12.50 (up 465% from ~$2.20). But here’s the thing — the real story isn’t the numbers themselves. It’s what’s driving them.

The Trump Factor Is a Real Catalyst

Let’s be honest: crypto’s biggest tailwind right now is political. The Trump administration has essentially flipped the regulatory script:

Strategic Bitcoin reserves: The government is now holding onto seized crypto instead of liquidating it. Translation: the federal government could become a Bitcoin buyer down the road.
Paul Atkins at the SEC: A crypto advocate leading securities regulation? That’s a shift.
SAB 121 killed: This rule forced banks to treat custodied crypto as a balance sheet liability. Its removal removes a major friction point for institutions to hold digital assets.
The Genius Act passed: Stablecoin framework is finally here. Boring but crucial.

These aren’t memes. They’re structural changes that reduce barriers to institutional adoption.

Bitcoin’s Institutional Train Is Already Moving

Here’s where the data gets interesting:

Large fund managers (those with $100M+ in assets) owning Bitcoin through the iShares spot ETF jumped 150% in the past year, with share counts up 153%.
Public and private companies holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets more than doubled in 12 months.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs made crypto accessible through traditional brokers, removing the friction of exchange accounts and trading fees.

This isn’t retail FOMO. This is institutional capital systematically entering the ecosystem. Every layer of adoption makes the next layer easier.

XRP Is the Harder Sell (and Kendrick Knows It)

Here’s where the analyst hedges: XRP’s story is messier.

Yes, the XRP Ledger is faster and cheaper than SWIFT for cross-border payments. Yes, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse projected XRP capturing 14% of SWIFT volume in five years (~$20 trillion annually). But the real check on that: why would institutions use a volatile crypto when stablecoins exist?

The actual catalyst for XRP is the spot ETF angle. Canary Capital launched the Canary XRP ETF on Nov. 13, and it crushed volume records for new 2025 ETF launches. That matters because it does for XRP what spot Bitcoin ETFs did for Bitcoin — removes friction.

But here’s the reality check: Bitcoin is bigger, better known, and has longer institutional tailwinds. Most institutions buying crypto will probably load up Bitcoin first, then consider alternatives.

The Bigger Picture

Kendrick’s targets aren’t random. They’re anchored to a thesis: as regulation loosens and institutional adoption accelerates, demand for scarce digital assets increases. Bitcoin’s fixed 21M supply becomes the feature, not a bug.

Is $500K realistic by 2028? It requires sustained institutional buying and sustained regulatory tailwinds. Both are plausible but not guaranteed. XRP at $12.50? Even Kendrick-watchers are more skeptical on that one.

The key question for investors: Are you betting on the macro thesis (crypto adoption accelerates), or are you price-chasing?

Because if institutions truly keep rotating into Bitcoin the way data suggests, the upside might be real. But if this is just a Trump-bounce that fades in 18 months, well… that’s a different story.