Trump's Beef Tariff Cut Just Handed the Cattle Market a Shot in the Arm

Live cattle futures are riding high—up $1.22 to $1.40 on Friday alone. Here’s what’s moving the needle:

The Trump Card: Late Thursday, the admin dropped a 40% tariff on Brazilian beef (now sitting at 26.4% after quota adjustments), retroactive to November 13. Translation: cheaper competition pouring in, which means domestic producers are scrambling to move inventory before prices soften further.

Cash Market Reality Check:

• Northern cash sales: $215-220 (mostly high end)
• Southern premium: $224
• Fed Cattle Exchange online auction: Zero takers at $218-220 on 1,668 head

Feeder cattle are up 27 cents to $1.60 midday; the CME Feeder Cattle Index jumped $1.14 to $341.16.

What’s Actually Happening: This looks like “buy the rumor, sell the fact” in reverse. The tariff relief spooked some shorts into covering positions yesterday, but here’s the tension: if Brazilian beef floods the market, domestic prices could face real downside. Futures are pricing in a bounce now, betting the relief is already priced in.

Data to Watch:

• October placements expected down 7.9% YoY (Reuters consensus)
• November 1 on feed: 2.2% below last year
• Thursday slaughter: 120,000 head (weekly: 477,000 vs 499,435 last year)
• Boxed beef prices up; Choice boxes +33¢ to $371.61, Select +$4.24 to $358.42

The Bottom Line: Cattlemen are buying the dip on the assumption tariff relief won’t crater demand immediately. But watch the cash prices—if they roll over next week, this rally could fizzle fast.