#数字资产市场观察 Many people say this bull run is coming to an end.

But I feel that the story has just begun.

A while ago when it fell below 82268, I bought the dip. Now that the price is warming up, people around me are starting to ask "When to sell"—98888? Or 188888?

But there has been a thought spinning in my mind: what if we don't have to rush to sell at all?

During this period, I have gone through a lot of information, and the more I look, the more I feel something is off. Is the "four-year halving cycle" that everyone is talking about just a facade? Hasn't the Federal Reserve's monetary policy played a role in dragging this round of market conditions to the present?

In the fourth quarter of last year, everyone was waiting for the bull run and the explosion of altcoins. As a result, the plunge in October directly dropped by 39%, disrupting all expectations. This made me think of a question: according to traditional understanding, next year should enter a bear market, but what if the liquidity logic changes?

I tend to believe that there will be unexpected gains next year.

The reasons are actually not complicated, let's look at four points:

🏦 The real big money is still watching.
Spot ETFs and institutions are indeed buying, but what about sovereign funds, pensions, and national reserves—those super players? I haven't seen any movement from them.

💵 The direction of monetary policy has changed.
The Federal Reserve may change personnel next year, and interest rate cuts will not stop. Given the debt pressure in the U.S., they might tacitly allow inflation to rise a bit, and the dollar will naturally depreciate.

📈 Don't overlook the SLR reform thing.
Those who have studied the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) know that it has a high correlation with Bitcoin's price movements. The last time during the pandemic, the relaxation of SLR combined with quantitative easing directly led to the peak of 69,000. If new reforms come, liquidity will loosen again.

💰 Large-scale fiscal plans require money
Look at the recent investment plans that have been signed, their scale is comparable to the Manhattan Project of the past. Such a national-level burn of cash makes the restart of QE not impossible.

So from a liquidity perspective, this round of the super market may not be the finale, but rather the prologue. From 2026 to 2027, it may not be a bear market, but rather a crazy phase of capital flooding.

I choose to trust my judgment. I have increased my position.

What do you think? Will it really break the traditional cycle next year?