Zhongjin: The risk of Intrerest Rate rising is greater than the risk of falling after Trump's election

BlockBeats News, on November 8th, China Jianyin Company research report pointed out that the US inflation and economic data in mid-2025 may gradually warm up, and the pace of interest rate cuts may gradually stop. With Trump’s election, the upside risk of the interest rate is greater than the downside risk, and a 100bps interest rate cut may be an appropriate magnitude. Market expectations for the future interest rate path have swung from one extreme to the other in recent economic data, especially after the election. From the perspective of rhythm, inflation and economic data may gradually rebound in mid-2025, leading to a gradual cessation of interest rate cuts. China Jianyin estimates that inflation in the fourth quarter of this year will be boosted by base effects, but with the downward pressure on rent, inflation and core inflation will fall slightly in the first quarter of 2025. In terms of magnitude, a interest rate cut to around 3.5% is a reasonable level.