Data: This year, 118 token issuances had nearly 85% falling below the issue price in their TGE. Can we still make a profit from new offerings?

According to statistics, 84.7% of the 118 TGEs in 2025 fell below the issue price, with a median drop of 71%. Funds are shifting towards Bitcoin and Ether. Is the new investment strategy failing? (Previously: Aster, Lighter… strong enemies besiege, Hyperliquid's siege battle) (Background Supplement: Market share dropped from 80% to 20%, what happened to Hyperliquid?)

The year 2025 is about to come to an end, and the primary market for cryptocurrencies has been surprisingly cold during this period. According to statistics from Memento Research on December 20, out of 118 token generation events (TGE) this year, 84.7% of new coins fell below the issue price upon opening, with only 15% maintaining an increase. For airdrop hunters who have relied on “new listings” for profit over the years, this year has probably not been good.

falling below the issue price has become the norm, and the concentration of funds has increased.

Statistics show that the median full diluted valuation (FDV) of these 118 projects has fallen by 71%, and the overall market value has shrunk by nearly 67% this year. In other words, most early investors' holdings are now deeply in the red.

Grayscale's observation indicates that since 2024, $87 billion has flowed into Bitcoin spot ETFs, continuing into 2025, directed towards larger market capitalization and stable liquidity Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH), making it difficult for new tokens to compete for this wave of institutional funding.

Liquidity tightening and flaws in token economics

In addition to the capital flow towards mainstream cryptocurrency ETFs, many projects this year are designed for short-term unlocking, with teams and early investors continuously selling off, creating price pressure. The CFA Institute recommends that investors currently adopt a five-step fair value framework to assess protocol revenue, user retention, and token utility, rather than just looking at community hype.

On the other hand, the performance of the altcoin strategy funds that have been launched this year has also been hindered, with some hedge funds experiencing a return of -23% from the beginning of the year to now, indicating that strategies with high leverage and heavy positions in new coins are being countered by the market. If investors want to survive in the next cycle, it is imperative to pay attention to token economics and on-chain fundamental data.