- Weekly Outlook for Bitcoin: Two Months of Decline and Two Months of Rise—What’s Next?

Bitcoin (BTC) continues its recovery, surpassing $77,400 on Friday after a slight dip earlier in the week. However, institutional demand is showing cautious signals, as spot trading exchanges recorded outflows up to Thursday amid the Federal Reserve’s hawkish tone and the uncertainty surrounding U.S.-Iran peace talks, which has limited the upward momentum of the “king of digital currencies.” Meanwhile, optimism continues to grow around the largest digital asset by market value, as it ends its second month of positive returns.

- Institutional Investors Remain Cautious
Institutional demand has been cautious so far this week. SoSoValue data shows that the spot Bitcoin ETF recorded an outflow of $475.87 million up to Thursday. If this outflow continues and intensifies on Friday, it would break a streak of inflows that has lasted four consecutive weeks since early April, and could extend a short-term correction in the Bitcoin price.

Weekly chart of net spot Bitcoin flows into ETFs. Source: SoSoValue

However, the monthly chart for Bitcoin shows net cash inflows of $1.97 billion in April, marking the second consecutive month of cash inflows. If this trend continues in May, Bitcoin could rise in the coming weeks.

Monthly chart of net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. Source: SoSoValue

On the corporate front, demand for Bitcoin remains strong. Michael Saylor announced on Monday on X that his company, Strategy (MSTR), purchased an additional 3,273 Bitcoins worth $255 million to add to its reserves. The company continues its intensive accumulation streak, bringing its total holdings to 818,334 Bitcoins, despite an unrealized loss of $14.46 billion on its Bitcoin holdings during Q1 and the ongoing U.S.-Iran standoff.
$BTC