I just reviewed some interesting analyses about where Bitcoin might go in the coming months, and there's something that not many are seriously considering. Liquidity is currently the main fuel, but there is a variable that could significantly change the game: the upcoming halving cycle.

What’s happening in the market is quite clear. We have institutional capital inflows, fund movements that are pushing prices upward. Bitcoin benefits directly from this liquidity flowing into digital assets. But here’s where it gets interesting: Schwab’s analyses and other market observers suggest that when the halving cycle arrives in 2026, things could slow down considerably.

For those who don’t know, the halving is that event where the reward for mining new blocks is cut in half. Historically, this has generated very particular dynamics in the price. The thing is, the market tends to price in these events well in advance, and as the halving approaches, the narrative shifts.

What many traders are ignoring is that the liquidity fueling Bitcoin today might not be enough to sustain a strong rally if sentiment changes as the halving approaches. It’s not that it will collapse, but the bullish momentum could lose steam. The 2026 halving is a turning point that deserves to be on everyone’s radar if they’re thinking about medium-term positions.

Basically, we are in a window where liquidity is the dominant factor, but the halving cycle is the variable that could slow everything down. It’s worth paying attention to how this evolves in the coming months.