Despite releasing the largest reserve oil reserves in history, oil prices still face difficulties in stabilizing... Iran conflict intensifies

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has decided to implement the largest-ever release of reserves, but it still has not stabilized international oil prices. Analysts believe that, given the current severe shortage of oil supplies caused by the Iran conflict, releasing reserves is likely only a short-term solution.

On the 11th, the IEA reached an agreement with member countries to jointly release a total of 400 million barrels of reserves. This is twice the amount released during the Russia-Ukraine war earlier. Despite such a large-scale release, the impact on oil prices will be limited due to the massive disruption of global crude oil production and the phased release by each country.

Goldman Sachs estimates that daily oil exports from the Gulf region have decreased by 15.4 million barrels. This means the released reserves can only cover about 26 days of the shortfall. Considering Iran’s supply disruptions, the market is likely to remain unstable.

As tensions escalate following Iran’s attack on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, international concerns deepen. Iran is leading the rise in oil and energy prices and warns that if regional security issues are not addressed, oil prices could soar to $200 per barrel. In this context, the U.S. is reportedly considering additional sanctions or even military intervention.

This reserve release ultimately exposes its limitations in addressing the structural issues of the global oil market. How effective these measures will be in curbing inflation and what changes they will bring to the energy market are closely watched.