Trump's statement causes international oil prices to plummet by 11%... Expectations of the end of the Iran war heat up

As optimistic forecasts emerge that the Iran war will end sooner than expected, international oil prices have plummeted. On March 10, global oil prices dropped over 10% based on closing prices, after President Donald Trump hinted that the war might end early. This statement sparked expectations that crude oil supply and demand would quickly return to normal, driving prices down.

That day, ICE Futures’ May Brent crude oil futures closed at $87.8 per barrel, down more than 11% in a single day. Considering that WTI futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange also fell 11.9% to $83.45 per barrel, marking the largest decline since March 2022. In Asian markets, Brent crude briefly rose to $119 per barrel but then sharply declined during trading.

In an interview with CBS, President Trump mentioned that the war could end “very thoroughly,” and later at a press conference, he stated that the end of the war would happen “soon,” influencing market sentiment. News that the G7 is considering releasing strategic oil reserves also contributed to the downward pressure on oil prices.

However, despite these optimistic outlooks, Iran has shown a negative stance toward the end of the war. The Iranian Parliament Speaker and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps have expressed firm positions, stating they will not let the U.S. dominate the war. Additionally, warnings have been issued that continued disruptions of oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz could lead to severe global oil supply issues.

Ultimately, this trend indicates that, with the actual end date of the war uncertain, oil price fluctuations may continue to be influenced by various economic and political factors.