#深度创作营 Is the current BTC the diamond bottom before 2028?

2026 is undoubtedly the worst year for WEB3, and also the worst start to the year for BTC in the past decade.
There are no clearly attributable external negative factors; the price has fallen from 109,000 at the beginning of the year to around 65,000, a decline of 24% within the year, and Ethereum has dropped even more, by 34%. Everyone is asking the same question — is the current price the diamond bottom that, once broken, will never be revisited before the 2028 cycle begins?

Before clarifying this question, one key understanding is very important: justified declines are risk cleanouts, unjustified declines are emotional cleanouts. The fundamental nature and subsequent trends of these two types of declines are vastly different.
In 2018, Bitcoin fell 73% for the year, mainly because the ICO bubble burst completely, with countless altcoins collapsing to zero, and the market was clearing out worthless speculative bubbles; in 2022, Bitcoin fell 77%, triggered by systemic risks such as Luna algorithmic stablecoin collapse, Three Arrows Capital’s default, and FTX exchange’s bankruptcy, with each decline having clear enemies and risk points. The market knew when negative news was exhausted and roughly how long trust rebuilding would take. But in 2026, everyone has gone crazy — no centralized exchange failures, no algorithmic stablecoin collapses, no major hacking incidents, and no targeted bans by major countries (even the 2,6 announcements didn’t ban). It’s like what Fortune magazine described: the worst start to the year in history, yet no clear catalyst for a crash. Justified crashes tend to be followed by rapid rebound once negative news is exhausted, while unjustified, chronic bloodletting causes panic to grow, as everyone searches for a reason for the decline but finds none. This fear of the unknown can often break everyone’s psychological defenses more than known risks.

As of February 25, 2026, the latest data shows that the bottom-fishing model signals only 1/5, and all core indicators point to historically extreme levels: MVRV valuation below 1.0, price close to the 200-week moving average, market fear and greed index dropping to 11 in extreme fear, and miner equipment prices near half of the shutdown cost for half of the hash rate... Such combinations of indicators have only appeared twice in Bitcoin’s history: once at the deep bear stage around 3,000 USD in late 2018, and once after the FTX collapse around 16,000 USD in 2022! Even though Bitcoin is still trading at around 65,000 USD, the overall market psychology has already reached a doomsday mode. Usually, sentiment bottoms out before price bottoms out — this is a fundamental rule of cycles.

While the market is engulfed in panic, we need to penetrate the ice to see the true underlying structure beneath the surface, and recognize positive signals that are masked by emotion.
The first key signal is that USDT net outflow over 60 days has reached 3 billion USD. The last time a similar scale of fund withdrawal occurred was at the end of 2022 during the FTX collapse, when Bitcoin was around 16,000 USD. Currently, Bitcoin’s price is four times higher than then, and the magnitude of fund withdrawal is exactly the same. This directly indicates that leverage and floating chips in the market have been cleaned up very thoroughly. The second key signal is that short-term whale accounts with unrealized losses have reached 26 billion USD, most of which were accumulated around 76,000 USD. The current loss is about 20-40%. Based on historical trading experience, when large funds are trapped at this depth, selling pressure naturally weakens, and the market’s selling pressure shifts from active stop-loss to passive exit. Passive exits have limited energy, which is a core structural support indicating the market is about to bottom out.

But we shouldn’t always predict the short-term bottom, because irrational market fluctuations can never be precisely forecasted. The current situation is unlikely to be the absolute lowest point, but based on logic and data, some certain events can be seen:
First, the extreme fear indicator has appeared, and in all past extreme panic moments, they ultimately became the starting points of the next cycle;
Second, unjustified emotional declines are often followed by more vigorous rebounds once panic is exhausted — the deeper the fall, the stronger the rebound;
Third, at the 65,000 USD level, Bitcoin’s long-term safety margin is already quite high, and the downside potential is greatly compressed, while the cycle’s upside bonus is gradually approaching.

In 2018, those who said 3,000 USD was the diamond bottom were ultimately proven correct; in 2022, those who said 16,000 USD was the diamond bottom were ultimately proven correct. The 64,000 to 65,000 USD range in 2026 may not be the instant reversal bottom, but it is certainly a viable option from a long-term perspective!
No one can tell you whether tomorrow’s price will go up or down, but it’s certain that panic will eventually pass, consensus will be rebuilt, and prices will ultimately return to the cycle’s trajectory.

Looking back from the perspective of 2028, today’s 2026, shrouded in panic, might become the diamond bottom many regret not decisively positioning for — just like in 2015 when Mt. Gox was hacked and everyone believed Bitcoin’s trust could never be rebuilt, or in the darkest moments of 2018 and 2022 when everyone thought the market had no hope anymore!
But cycles repeatedly prove that all panic is temporary, all cycles will recur, and every irrational decline ultimately sets the stage for the next crazy rally.

Those who are out of the market have avoided the most severe retracement zone, while those holding positions are enduring the toughest panic phase. Truly long-term thinkers will quietly complete their布局 during this emotionally driven market.