Polymarket denies Venezuela was invaded, sparking strong community dissatisfaction

On January 7, according to MarketWatch, after the prediction market Polymarket refused to pay out related bets on “The United States will invade Venezuela” and stated that the events over the weekend did not constitute an “invasion,” customers of Polymarket expressed strong dissatisfaction. According to Polymarket’s official website, the outcome “The US invading Venezuela before December 31” is currently deemed as no, with a trading volume of $2.76 million. An anonymous user posted on the Polymarket website questioning, “What exactly counts as an invasion?” and called the company “Polyscam.” Another user stated, “Polymarket has degenerated into complete arbitrary rulings. Words can be redefined at will, detached from any recognized meaning, and facts are directly ignored. A military invasion, kidnapping of a head of state, and takeover of a country are not recognized as invasions, which is obviously absurd.” Someone else wrote, “Are you joking?” Another asked in return, “So this doesn’t count as an invasion just because the action was quick and the death toll was low?” (The New York Times quoted a Venezuelan official as saying that the death toll from this raid was 80.) Polymarket explained on its website that "the market refers to a US military operation aimed at establishing control. When Trump mentioned negotiations with the Venezuelan government and stated that the US would ‘run’ Venezuela, this statement alone is not enough to classify the ‘raid and withdrawal’ conducted to captur