Goldman Sachs warns: A winter of the U.S. labor market is approaching! Layoff wave hits a nearly ten-year high, and the unemployment rate may surge next year.

Goldman Sachs' latest report notes that the U.S. labor market is showing “increasingly clear signs of weakness.” Despite the suspension of official employment data due to the shutdown, private sector layoff announcements and WARN warning notices both soared to their most violent levels in a decade, particularly in the technology, industrial and food and beverage sectors. Goldman Sachs warned that if companies continue to reduce their workforce, the unemployment rate could deteriorate rapidly in early 2026. (Summary: The 7 major industries in the United States have turned red, and the cracks under the stability of the surface data) (Background supplement: US non-farm payrolls in September far exceeded expectations!) Fed rate cut probability rebounds to 41% in December) The latest report by the Goldman Sachs research team recently issued a strong warning to the US labor market. Using alternative data indicators such as private sector layoff announcements and WARN notices, the researchers found that although the official employment report in the United States was suspended due to the federal government shutdown, the US labor market has shown “growing signs of weakness”. The report singled out industries such as technology, industrial goods and food and beverage, highlighting that the wave of layoffs in these industries is accelerating, and if this trend continues, it may drag down the overall job market and lead to an accelerated weakening. Layoffs hit a non-recession high According to Challenger, Gray & Christmas data cited by Goldman Sachs, the number of private sector layoff announcements in October 2025 hit a record high in non-recession periods. At the same time, the notice of large-scale layoffs received by the state government (WARN notice) has also soared to the highest level since 2016 (excluding the peak of the epidemic in 2020), the largest increase tracked by Goldman Sachs in the past decade. At the same time, Goldman Sachs economists Manuel Abecasis and Pierfrancesco Mei also stressed that the most worrying thing is not just the number of layoffs, but the “hiring freeze” and “rising layoffs” at the same time. At present, the willingness of US companies to hire is sluggish, and the average time for the unemployed to find a job is significantly longer, which means that the impact of layoffs will be more persistent and difficult to repair than in the past. Even tech giants can't escape the wave of layoffs It is worth noting that Goldman Sachs added that even US tech giants such as Amazon have joined this wave of streamlined layoffs. Amazon announced the elimination of about 14,000 management positions this fall, citing “organizational flattening” and “embracing AI.” Goldman Sachs observed that more and more executives of listed companies are also openly talking about layoff plans on earnings calls, indicating that companies are becoming conservative about future manpower needs. AI is not yet the main cause, but pressure is accumulating Although the outside world is worried that artificial intelligence will grab jobs, Goldman Sachs believes that the current evidence is not enough to prove that AI is the main cause of this wave of layoffs. The report pointed out that although AI is frequently mentioned in corporate financial reports, less than 2% of employees are clearly laid off due to AI replacement. Instead, the real pressure comes from slowing consumer and business spending, rising costs, and uncertainty about the economic outlook for 2026. Goldman Sachs cautioned that weekly jobless claims in the United States remain low, but this indicator usually lags behind private layoffs by about two months. With the onset of winter, if the wave of layoffs does not subside, the official unemployment rate announced in early 2026 is likely to climb rapidly, and the market will really feel the power of cooling the job market. Related stories Kill! U.S. non-farm payrolls revised down by a record 911,000, bitcoin narrowly lost 110,000, and Ethereum fell below $4,300 Polymarket announces its return to the United States: approved by the CFTC to operate an intermediary trading platform as a “designated contract market” Amazon will invest $50 billion to expand US government AI and supercomputing! Bitcoin strong bomb broke through $88,000, crypto concept stocks rose together [Goldman Sachs warns: the US labor market winter is coming! The wave of layoffs is the highest in nearly a decade, and the unemployment rate is likely to increase sharply next year" This article was first published in BlockTempo “Dynamic Trend - The Most Influential Blockchain News Media”.