#创作者冲榜 Can Gold Rally Back?

The more pressing market question right now is whether gold prices can rebound. China Asset Management analysis shows that gold, viewed as a safe-haven asset, has been declining continuously since March because gold's safe-haven properties are tied to U.S. dollar credit collapse and runaway inflation, rather than liquidity depletion and deflation risks. Currently, the market is concerned about marginal deterioration in liquidity, while the impact from geopolitical conflicts has clearly weakened.

The institution believes that the tight monetary shock to gold is largely temporary, and the long-term logic of geopolitical conflicts and central bank gold purchases has not been shaken or reversed. Gold's medium to long-term upward momentum remains intact, but the short term still requires waiting for risk release. Facing market panic sentiment, institutions continue to assert that short-term pain does not obscure gold's long-term allocation value.

UBS Wealth Management believes that geopolitical uncertainty, continued central bank buying, and safe-haven demand will continue to support gold prices. Recent gold price adjustments are consistent with the performance seen in earlier stages of past geopolitical crises, and as risks persist and real interest rates decline, gold is expected to reach new highs this year.

Yuekai Securities Chief Economist Luo Zhiheng points out that the current sharp decline in gold is not a signal of the end of a bull market, but rather a deep correction within an uptrend. From a long-term perspective, normalized global geopolitical risks, robust gold purchase demand from non-U.S. central banks, and risks of global economic shift from "inflation" to "stagflation" will all provide solid support for gold prices.

However, institutions have generally provided cautious advice to investors eager to "bottom-fish."

"Technical analysis indicates that gold prices have clearly fallen below the 60-day moving average, a key support level, meaning the downside space may be further opened."

The aforementioned trader suggests that given the continued fermentation of headwinds such as Federal Reserve monetary policy and U.S. dollar trends, the short-term downtrend has not yet ended, and ordinary investors should not blindly catch falling knives in a downtrend. It is advisable to wait for gold prices to stabilize within the 4400-4600 USD/ounce range, then gradually build positions for medium to long-term holdings.