Bitcoin reached a high of $76,000 during trading on March 16, marking nearly a 20% increase since the outbreak of the US-Iran war, outperforming gold and the S&P 500. Analysts analyze three aspects—geopolitical cooling, risk-hedging attribute shift, and options Gamma magnetic attraction—to dissect the driving forces behind this rally, while warning that this week’s FOMC meeting is the biggest uncertainty factor.
（Background: Deep analysis by Dario: If Trump loses control of the Hormuz Strait, US hegemony will rapidly disintegrate）
（Additional context: Trump admits Iran’s retaliation exceeds expectations, hinting at another strike on Halek Island; Europe refuses to escort, Hormuz alliance faces changes）
Table of Contents
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- Three main drivers of upward movement: geopolitical cooling, risk-hedging establishment, options Gamma magnetic attraction
- March 27 expiry structure changes: $75,000 call significantly outweighs put
- FOMC is the biggest uncertainty, with BTC declining after rate decisions in 7 of 8 past meetings
Bitcoin surged to $76,000 during intraday trading on March 16, after eight consecutive positive days, reaching a six-week high, with a 24-hour increase of nearly 4%. This level approaches the key resistance zone since late January. Since the outbreak of the US-Iran war on February 28, Bitcoin has risen nearly 20%, while gold has fallen about 3% and the S&P 500 has declined about 2%, outperforming almost all mainstream assets.
Regarding liquidation data, according to Coinglass, total open interest liquidations over the past 24 hours reached $610 million, with short liquidations at $485 million. Data from Alternative.me shows market sentiment has shifted from “extreme panic” to “panic,” with the crypto fear and greed index rebounding to 28 (from 23 “extreme panic” yesterday).
On March 16, all three major US stock indices closed higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 387.94 points to 46,946, up 0.83%; the S&P 500 increased 1.01% to 6,699; Nasdaq gained 1.22% to 22,374. The main catalyst for improved market sentiment was geopolitical risk cooling—US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC that the US is allowing Iranian oil tankers to pass through the Hormuz Strait, the first successful passage since the conflict erupted.
WTI crude oil futures traded between $92.93 and $94.17 per barrel intraday, with Brent opening at $105.26. Previously, concerns about the Hormuz Strait blockade cutting off about 20% of global oil shipments drove prices to a three-year high. As expectations of easing tensions grew, oil prices were suppressed.
Dragged down by a strengthening dollar, spot gold retreated to around $5,010 per ounce, showing a clear pullback from recent highs, while silver also adjusted in tandem with precious metals. The divergence between gold and Bitcoin warrants attention—since the outbreak of war, both have been viewed as safe-haven assets, but Bitcoin’s rally has gradually surpassed gold.
Three main drivers of upward movement: geopolitical cooling, risk-hedging establishment, options Gamma magnetic attraction
The three core reasons driving Bitcoin upward are:
First, geopolitical risk cooling releases risk appetite. The Hormuz Strait crisis has been the biggest suppressor in the past three weeks. High oil prices imply rising inflation expectations, which are detrimental to liquidity-sensitive assets. As signals of reopening the strait emerge, markets begin to reprice.
Second, Bitcoin is gradually establishing itself as a non-dollar safe-haven asset. In this US-Iran conflict, Bitcoin did not decline in tandem with stocks but instead strengthened against them. Forbes reports that since the war began, Bitcoin has outperformed all mainstream safe assets like gold and stocks. This contrasts sharply with its performance at the start of the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war, where Bitcoin followed stocks downward, indicating a changing perception of Bitcoin’s safe-haven role.
Third, options structure is creating a magnetic effect around $75,000. Crypto analyst Murphy pointed out that options expiring on March 20 near the $74,000 strike have about $180 million in long Gamma open interest, and market makers’ hedging operations will suppress volatility, causing prices to oscillate around this zone, objectively forming short-term resistance.
March 27 expiry structure changes: $75,000 call significantly outweighs put
After March 20, the next major expiry on March 27 shows a clear shift. The $75,000 strike has an open interest of 9,685 BTC calls, while puts are only 2,711 BTC, with calls dominating. Notably, from February 28 to March 14, the net premium of calls at this strike surged from $5.8 million to $19.8 million, even as Bitcoin remained in the $66,000–$68,000 range, indicating early bullish positioning.
From Gamma risk exposure, there is about -$2.56 billion in short Gamma near the $75,000 strike. In a short Gamma environment, as prices approach this strike, market makers’ Delta changes rapidly, forcing continuous hedging in the direction of the price movement, creating the typical “Gamma magnetic effect.”
Above $80,000, there is a $420 million long Gamma open interest, which could reverse hedging direction and suppress volatility; below $65,000–$67,000, $390 million long Gamma provides a buffer, but open interest in this zone is weaker than at $75,000 and $80,000, serving as a buffer rather than strong support.
FOMC is the biggest uncertainty, with BTC declining after rate decisions in 7 of 8 past meetings
The Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting faces a dilemma, representing the most direct pressure test for Bitcoin. CME FedWatch shows over 99% probability of holding rates steady (3.50%–3.75%).
Historically, Bitcoin has declined after 7 of 8 FOMC meetings since 2025, with an average drop of 14%, with only one brief rally post-meeting. In January 2026, the Fed maintained rates as expected, and Bitcoin subsequently fell from $90,400, breaking below $60,000 before rebounding.
However, this policy environment is more complex than before. Brent crude has surpassed $100 per barrel, reigniting inflation pressures; February’s non-farm payrolls were unexpectedly weak, stressing the labor market. The simultaneous conflicting signals from these policy targets sharply narrow monetary policy maneuvering space.
For Fed Chair Powell, this will be his penultimate meeting before his term ends in May. The next rate adjustment may only occur after Kevin Warsh, nominated by Trump, officially takes over as Fed Chair. Additionally, a political complication arises—last week, a federal judge dismissed the Department of Justice’s subpoena against the Fed, but prosecutors announced an appeal, potentially delaying Warsh’s confirmation. Powell’s term ends in May, but court documents reveal he stated he “cannot resign while a criminal investigation remains unresolved.”
For Bitcoin, if Powell signals confidence in inflation trends or hints at an easing window within the year, it would be highly bullish; but if he reiterates hawkish stances or is vague under political pressure, short-term pullback risks will rise significantly.
