Abstract
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Strong nonfarm payroll data has rekindled expectations for rate hikes. BTC showed relative resilience, briefly breaking above 82,000 USDT in the first half of the week before falling back below 80,000 USDT following the release of strong employment data. ETH was relatively weaker, indicating that capital remained more inclined toward BTC under macro pressure.
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BTC ETFs recorded weekly net inflows of around $987 million, maintaining strong subscriptions for the second consecutive week, with IBIT contributing roughly 70% of the increase. Net inflows into ETH ETFs, meanwhile, fell 73.6% week-on-week to approximately $215 million. Gate TradFi's weekly trading volume reached around $120 billion, with CFDs contributing nearly $95 billion.
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BTC recovered above 80,000 USDT, but leverage did not expand aggressively in tandem. BTC open interest briefly rose to $27.527 billion before retreating to $25.466 billion, posting only a 0.45% weekly increase. Average funding rates stood at around 0.0036%, indicating that leverage risk has been released significantly from its mid-week highs.
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BTC options maintained an overall Put/Call Ratio of 0.55, with outstanding positions continuing to favor calls. The 7D and 30D Skew rose to +2.39% and +1.38%, respectively, while DVOL increased to 39.32, reflecting continued interest in upside opportunities alongside a growing willingness to pay a premium for larger price fluctuations.
1. Market Focus Analysis
Last week (August 31 to September 6, 2026), the market was primarily driven by US employment data and expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. US nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000 in August, significantly exceeding market expectations of around 53,000; the unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, while employment figures for June and July were revised up by a combined 55,000. The strong data eased concerns over an economic recession, but prompted the market to reassess the inflation and interest rate path. Expectations for a September interest rate hike rose noticeably. Following the employment report, the interest rate-sensitive 2-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.37%, while the 10-year yield closed at around 4.78%, putting pressure on long-duration Treasury prices.
US stocks fluctuated between a rebound in technology stocks and interest rate pressure: the S&P 500 rose 0.1% for the week, the Nasdaq gained 0.4%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.3%. In the commodities market, supply risks in the Middle East and inflation concerns pushed WTI crude up roughly 9.4% over the week to close at around $91.2. Gold briefly strengthened on safe-haven demand, but retreated to around $4,476 on Friday as the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields rose. Traditional markets reflected a combination of improving growth expectations and tightening liquidity expectations.
The crypto market was supported in the first half of the week by expectations for rate cuts, spot ETF inflows, and a recovery in risk appetite, with BTC briefly breaking above 82,000 USDT. Following the release of strong nonfarm payroll data, expectations for interest rate hikes strengthened, sending BTC quickly back below 80,000 USDT, while ETH also came under pressure. Overall, BTC maintained a modest weekly gain on the back of capital inflows, while ETH largely returned to its level at the beginning of the week, indicating that expectations for higher interest rates continue to weigh on crypto asset valuation expansion.
2. Liquidity Analysis
2.1 BTC ETFs recorded total net inflows of approximately $987 million, with institutions still willing to increase allocations as prices recovered
Last week, US spot BTC ETFs recorded a total net inflow of approximately $987 million, up 6.73% from the previous week's $925 million, maintaining strong subscription inflows for the second consecutive week. IBIT led the pack with a net inflow of around $692 million, contributing roughly 70% of the incremental flows and making it the strongest-performing product; GBTC saw a net outflow of about $48 million, making it the weakest-performing product. While daily flows fluctuated significantly during the week, approximately $731 million of concentrated inflows were recorded on September 3, indicating that institutions remained willing to increase allocations as prices recovered. Based on estimated figures, BTC ETF AUM stood at approximately $101.240 billion at the end of the week, representing a week-over-week increase of around 4.44%.
The total net inflow of ETH spot ETFs reached approximately $215 million, down 73.60% from the previous week's $816 million. While capital enthusiasm cooled noticeably, flows had not yet shifted into net redemptions. ETHA recorded a net inflow of around $136 million, continuing to lead the market; ETHE saw a net outflow of about $37 million, making it the weakest-performing product. Based on estimated figures, ETH ETF AUM stood at approximately $15.670 billion at the end of the week, representing a week-over-week increase of roughly 5.49%, mainly driven by ETH's 4.04% price increase and continued subscription inflows. Overall, institutional sentiment remains generally positive, but capital has clearly tilted toward BTC. ETH has shifted from its previous strong catch-up phase into a period of more moderate allocation, while inflows into both types of ETFs remain concentrated in a small number of leading products, with market breadth still requiring further observation.
2.2 TradFi Liquidity
- TradFi Perp DEX: Over the past week, the asset structure of the TradFi Perp DEX market continued to undergo a notable shift. Stock trading volume increased further from approximately 60% to around 70%, becoming the market's primary source of trading activity. The share of commodities declined from around 20% in the middle of the year to approximately 10%, standing in sharp contrast to its peak of over 70% in the second quarter. Indices/ETFs continued to contribute around 15%–20%, remaining the most stable trading segment outside equities, while categories such as foreign exchange, bonds, Pre-IPO, and standalone ETFs continued to account for only a minimal share. Overall, TradFi Perp DEX has gradually shifted from a foreign exchange-led structure at the beginning of the year and a commodities-led structure in the second quarter toward an equities-led structure in the third quarter. This reflects that demand for on-chain TradFi trading is becoming increasingly concentrated in highly liquid and highly volatile equity assets.
- Gate TradFi Trading Volume: Last week, the total trading volume of Gate TradFi remained at a relatively high level, reaching around $120 billion for the week, down slightly from approximately $123 billion in the previous week. CFDs continued to hold an absolute dominant position, with trading volume close to $95 billion; Perps accounted for around $20 billion–$25 billion, extending the notable expansion trend seen since August; Spot trading volume remained at a relatively low level. More recently, the central level of total trading volume has gradually risen from around $80 billion–$100 billion in the second quarter to above $100 billion, with growth mainly driven by Perps. Overall, demand for on-chain derivatives tied to traditional assets continues to strengthen. CFDs provide a stable base of trading activity, while Perps are becoming a new source of growth for the TradFi business.
- Gate Stock Asset Trading Volume: Last week, Gate's stock trading structure continued to concentrate toward the US stock market. The share of US stock transactions rose to around 76%, further increasing from approximately 68% in the previous week and remaining the largest trading market for the second consecutive week. ETFs accounted for around 11%, Hong Kong stocks for approximately 7%, while the share of Korean stocks declined further from around 10% in the previous week to approximately 6%. This shift extends the structural rotation seen since August. Korean stocks once contributed more than 70% of trading volume in July, but subsequently cooled rapidly, while US stocks have continued to absorb capital since late July. The combined share of US stocks and ETFs has now approached 90%, indicating that users' trading focus has clearly returned to US assets. Gate's stock business has also gradually shifted from a Korean market-driven model toward a trading structure centered on US stocks.
- TradFi Order Book Depth: We selected XAUT, the TradFi asset with the highest trading volume, to analyze its order book depth (Delta). Over the past week, the ±1% aggregated order book liquidity Delta of XAUT was overall negative. On September 1, Delta briefly turned positive at around $2 million–$2.5 million before quickly retreating. It temporarily recovered into positive territory on September 3–4, but from September 5 onward, sell-side liquidity became noticeably dominant, with Delta remaining mostly in the range of approximately -$0.5 million to -$1.5 million. During the same period, XAUT first rebounded from around $4,430 to approximately $4,470, before falling back to around $4,400. Notably, Delta suddenly turned positive toward the end of September 7 and briefly rose to around $1 million, indicating that buy-side depth at lower levels has begun to recover, though its sustainability still requires further observation. Overall, the order book structure was relatively weak this week, broadly in line with the volatile downward price trend.
3. On-chain Data Insights
3.1 Robinhood Chain ignites stock meme trading, driving Uniswap volume up 237% in a single week
This week, Uniswap's trading volume surged from $17.13 billion to $57.76 billion, representing a 237.2% week-over-week increase, while the number of trades rose by 48.1%, allowing it to surpass PancakeSwap in a single stroke. Notably, the number of unique traders on Uniswap remained largely unchanged, indicating that the incremental volume mainly came from existing users increasing their trading frequency and average trade size.
The main driver was the market for Robinhood Chain stock tokens and stock memes. On September 4, single-day DEX trading volume on the chain briefly exceeded $3 billion, with Uniswap V2, V3, and V4 accounting for the vast majority of liquidity. Over the past seven days, Robinhood Chain recorded approximately $8.2 billion in trading volume, of which Uniswap accounted for around 77%. Stock meme pools have locked approximately 17.2% of the circulating supply of stock tokens and contributed around 31.3% of related trading volume. Some stock tokens traded at premiums exceeding 100% while the US stock market was closed.
3.2 Stablecoin supply increased by approximately $1.97 billion, with incremental capital concentrated in USDC and USDe
This week, the total supply of stablecoins increased from $309.61 billion to $311.58 billion, an increase of approximately $1.97 billion, representing 0.64% growth week-over-week. Among them, USDC increased by around $762 million to $74.698 billion, making it the largest source of absolute incremental supply this week; USDT decreased modestly by approximately $116 million, with its overall scale remaining broadly stable. Circle disclosed that, during the week ending September 3, approximately $11 billion in USDC was issued and around $10.4 billion was redeemed, resulting in net issuance of roughly $600 million.
Meanwhile, Circle and OKX expanded USDC's application across spot, margin, and derivatives markets, while a single $250 million USDC mint was also observed on Solana. The increase in supply reflects expanding liquidity on trading platforms and growing institutional settlement demand. USDe increased by approximately $290 million, up 7.1% week-over-week; PYUSD, USDD, and USDGO increased by around $127 million, $139 million, and $106 million, respectively. This week, Ethena launched Ethena Pay on Avalanche, extending USDe yield accounts further into payment use cases and expanding its narrative from a high-yield dollar product toward consumer payments and settlement.
In contrast, USYC supply declined by approximately $155 million, while USDS and USDG also contracted. A clear segmentation is emerging in the stablecoin market: incremental capital is flowing first toward USDC, which offers greater trading depth, as well as USDe, which incorporates yield and payment use cases, while some purely yield-oriented or ecosystem-oriented stablecoins are experiencing capital outflows.
This week, Lido's TVL increased by 1.4% to $24.04 billion, while StakeWise rose by 1.6% and Rocket Pool remained largely flat. Major ETH-based LSTs maintained overall positive growth, with no signs of concentrated redemptions.
SOL-based LSTs showed relatively weaker performance. Sanctum declined by 1.7%, Jito fell by 0.2%, and Jupiter Staked SOL decreased by 2.2%. The valuation elasticity previously driven by SOL ETF expectations and discussions around staking governance has not yet translated into sustained capital expansion for SOL LSTs.
Lista Liquid Staking, however, grew against the trend by 13.3%, becoming the most notable individual project this week and indicating that staking demand on BNB Chain retains a certain degree of independence.
3.4 Aave's borrowing volume increased by 1.4%, driven by expansion on Ethereum and Mantle
Aave's total borrowing balance across all chains increased from $12.164 billion to $12.329 billion, representing a 1.35% week-over-week increase. The Ethereum market added approximately $132 million to $10.076 billion and continued to account for 81.7% of total borrowing, maintaining its role as the core liquidity hub. Among the multi-chain markets, Mantle delivered the strongest performance, with its borrowing balance increasing by 17.7%. BNB Chain, Arbitrum, Base, and Plasma increased by 4.2%, 2.9%, 2.5%, and 2.3%, respectively.
This week, Aave introduced protocol risk oracles powered by LlamaRisk to dynamically manage the risk parameters of maturity-based collateral such as Pendle PT. PT-USDG was also advanced to the X Layer market on Aave V3. This mechanism facilitates the integration of maturity-based assets into the lending system, but also means that risk management must simultaneously account for changes in maturity dates, discounts, and liquidity. Overall, borrowing growth this week was underpinned by the core Ethereum market, while markets such as Mantle have begun to contribute incremental growth.
3.5 Aave’s average borrowing rates continued to decline, while WETH saw a brief utilization spike
This week, Aave’s average borrowing rate for USDC declined from 4.42% to 4.36%, while USDT fell from 4.22% to 4.18% and WETH decreased from 2.15% to 2.12%. Although borrowing balances increased, average borrowing rates continued to decline, indicating that incremental demand has not yet created sustained pressure on pool liquidity.
Tail-end volatility, however, remains worth monitoring. USDC’s peak borrowing rate reached 14.30% during the week, slightly above the previous week’s level. WETH’s peak rate briefly rose to 8.19%, significantly higher than its weekly average of around 2.12%, which may reflect a short-lived spike caused by a rapid increase in utilization in certain markets or the adjustment of a large position.
Low average rates are supportive of looping strategies, capital turnover, and market-neutral strategies. However, higher instantaneous rates suggest that institutions implementing leveraged strategies should still assess the available liquidity and interest rate curve in individual markets.
3.6 Overall protocol revenue declined, while GMGN became a major beneficiary of the Robinhood Chain rally
This week, revenue declined across most leading protocols. Tether and Circle both recorded a 12.8% decline, but remained firmly in the top two positions with revenue of approximately $96.94 million and $39.43 million, respectively. Hyperliquid's revenue fell by 31.5%, while Pump.fun, Axiom Pro, and Jupiter declined by 44.9%, 54.2%, and 60.0%, respectively, indicating that the trading pulse previously concentrated in Solana meme assets and perpetual futures markets has weakened noticeably.
GMGN's revenue, however, rose from approximately $7.48 million to $13.20 million, an increase of 76.4%, making it the most notable project to grow against the trend. Its trading terminal rapidly integrated the Robinhood Chain stock meme market, allowing it to directly capture cross-chain speculative capital. Robinhood Chain's single-day fees briefly reached approximately $6 million, with annualized revenue based on the past seven days approaching $1.1 billion; Pons' single-day revenue also briefly exceeded that of Pump.fun.
On-chain value capture is shifting from underlying public chains toward trading gateways, routers, and specialized terminals. The applications capturing revenue include not only trading infrastructure such as Uniswap, but also GMGN and Pons, which can rapidly aggregate Robinhood Chain liquidity and reach meme-focused users.
4. Derivatives Tracking
4.1 BTC recovered $80,000 after an initial pullback; OI peaked and retreated before posting a modest net increase, while funding rates remained moderately positive
Over the past week, BTC generally showed a pattern of pulling back before recovering at elevated levels. The price opened near $78,500 at the start of the week, declined on September 1–2, and recorded its weekly low around $77,300. BTC then rebounded sharply on September 3 before consolidating around the $80,000 level, closing near $80,300 on September 6, up 2.26% from the start of the week. From a price-structure perspective, BTC completed a recovery following its pullback at the beginning of the week, but the area above $81,000 remains a short-term supply zone requiring further confirmation.
Cross-exchange aggregated OI stood at $25.352 billion at the start of the week and fell to $25.194 billion on September 1. It then rose in tandem with the price rally on September 3, reaching a weekly high of $27.527 billion, up 8.58% from the beginning of the week. However, as BTC declined by 1.89% on September 4, OI dropped to $25.893 billion, representing a 5.94% single-day decline from the previous high. OI subsequently continued to retreat gradually, reaching $25.466 billion on September 6, only 0.45% higher than at the beginning of the week. While the rally on September 3 was accompanied by new leveraged participation, a notable position unwinding occurred the following day, and no sustained one-sided buildup in leverage emerged over the weekend.
Gate BTC perpetual funding rate ranged from -0.0043% to 0.0093% across settlement periods, with a simple average of 0.0036%. Funding rates briefly turned negative on September 5–6, indicating that long and short positions partially rebalanced following the mid-week rally.
Overall, BTC recovered above $80,000 this week without a significant expansion in OI, and leverage risk has eased from the September 3 high. Going forward, it will be important to monitor whether BTC can effectively break above $81,259.15 and drive OI back above $27.5 billion. If BTC falls below $77,313.13 again, positions held at positive funding rates may face further deleveraging pressure.
4.2 Options OI continues to concentrate on September and December contracts, while both overall positioning and daily trading remain call-dominated
The options market completed part of its position rotation following the expiry at the end of August. As of September 6, the notional open interest of BTC options stood at approximately $33.5 billion, with a 24-hour notional trading volume of around $205 million. The overall open interest Put/Call Ratio was 0.55, indicating that outstanding positioning remains clearly tilted toward a bullish structure. The 24-hour trading Put/Call Ratio was 0.72, showing that short-term trading was also dominated by call options, with no systematic dominance of put activity.
In terms of term structure, the OI of the contract expiring on September 25 stood at $14.445 billion, while the OI of the contract expiring on December 25 was around $9.116 billion. The combined OI of these two contracts totaled $23.560 billion, accounting for 70.25% of total OI, indicating that monthly and year-end contracts remain the core vehicles for BTC options risk exposure. Meanwhile, the short-dated contract expiring on September 11 had OI of $1.823 billion, with an OI Put/Call Ratio of 0.79, higher than the overall ratio of 0.55. This suggests relatively greater put allocations in near-term positions, though calls still remain dominant.
Overall, the options market is characterized by medium- and long-term bullish outstanding positions, alongside a relative increase in near-term downside protection that has not yet shifted into crowded defensive positioning. If BTC continues to fluctuate around the $80,000 level, it will be important to monitor whether the near-term Put/Call structure and trading direction change rapidly as the September 11 and September 25 contracts approach expiry.
4.3 Short-dated 25D Skew reverses, with call implied volatility exceeding put volatility across short- and medium-dated tenors
The 25D Skew recovered notably overall this week. The 7-day Skew rose from +0.38% on August 31 to +2.39% on September 6. It briefly declined to -0.30% on September 3 before jumping to a weekly high of +3.59% on September 4. The 30-day tenor rose from -1.60% to +1.38%, while the 60-day and 90-day tenors increased from -1.44% and -1.16% to +0.64% and +0.23%, respectively. By the weekend, short- and medium-dated indicators had all turned positive, indicating that the implied volatility of call options had regained a premium relative to puts.
In terms of the intra-week pattern, short-dated Skew briefly strengthened on September 1 before retreating again on September 2–3. As BTC rallied sharply on September 3, Skew moved higher across tenors in tandem on September 4. The 30-day tenor rose to +2.49% that day, while the 60-day and 90-day tenors increased to +0.95% and +0.52%, respectively. The 180-day tenor also recovered from -0.93% on September 3 to +0.04%. Following the rapid price rebound, demand for short- and medium-term upside positioning in the options market strengthened noticeably, rather than simply driving up the premium for downside protection.
However, demand for longer-dated protection has not fully subsided. Although the 180-day Skew recovered from -0.87% at the start of the week, it still stood at -0.14% on September 6, indicating that the implied volatility of six-month put options remained slightly higher than that of calls. Overall, this week’s Skew structure shifted from a defensive bias in the short and medium end at the end of last week to a combination of bullish skew across short- and medium-dated tenors, with a modest protection premium retained at the long end. If BTC holds above $80,000 and further breaks above $81,300, it will be important to monitor whether the positive short-dated Skew continues to widen. If the price falls below $77,300 again, a rapid shift in short-dated Skew into negative territory would indicate renewed demand for downside protection.
4.4 DVOL rose from around 37 to above 39, with short-dated volatility repriced during the September 3 rally
BTC DVOL rose from 36.99 at the open on August 31 to 39.32 at the close on September 6, representing a 6.30% increase for the week. The weekly low was 36.30, while the high reached 40.87. The peak occurred on September 3, coinciding with BTC’s rapid move from the $77,000 range toward the $81,200 range. DVOL closed at 39.78 that day, then retreated to 37.96 on September 4 before recovering to 39.32 by the weekend. This indicates that, despite an overall increase in spot prices during the week, the options market did not continue to compress volatility pricing. Instead, it raised its valuation of short-term uncertainty in response to the rapid directional move.
The ATM implied volatility for the September 11 expiry stood at 36.18%, compared with 37.01% for September 25 and 39.36% for December 25. The term structure from the short end to year-end remained generally upward sloping, with the December 25 ATM IV 3.18 volatility points higher than that of September 11. However, the September 18 ATM IV stood at 37.90%, above the adjacent September 25 tenor, indicating that a localized term premium remained in mid-September. Near-term IV did not show a significant inversion, suggesting that the market is not currently pricing an urgent one-sided risk. Nevertheless, compared with last week’s environment of declining DVOL and volatility compression, this week marked a clear shift.
Overall, this week’s BTC derivatives market was characterized by price recovery, OI peaking and then retreating, moderately positive funding rates, call-dominated outstanding positions and trading activity, and rising DVOL. This combination indicates that risk appetite remains present, but the new leverage added on September 3 was not fully retained, while implied volatility has already repriced the directional move. If BTC remains above $80,000 while OI grows moderately, the market structure may remain stable. If volatility continues to rise alongside a rapid contraction in OI, it would be necessary to watch for a short-term shift from trend continuation toward deleveraging-driven price action.
5. Outlook for This Week
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