A probabilidade de aumento de juros pelo Federal Reserve subiu inesperadamente para 6,5%: como os preços do petróleo podem reacender a inflação e remodelar a lógica de avaliação do mercado de criptomoedas

Entering the first quarter of 2026, the market’s pricing of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy was highly concentrated on the interest rate cut path. However, recent data from federal funds futures indicates that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates at least once in 2026 has risen to 6.5%, breaking a nearly six-month-long one-way expectation for rate cuts. On the surface, this probability still falls within a non-absolutely dominant range, but the directional shift signals much more than the number itself. The key variable is oil prices. After several months of continuous increase, WTI crude oil futures prices have begun to significantly transmit to terminal energy costs and service industry inflation, placing new pressure on the Federal Reserve under the theme of “unfinished inflation decline.” The macro narrative has shifted from “soft landing confirmation” to “repeated inflation risks,” constituting a structural challenge for risk asset valuation environments.

Why the Role of Oil Prices in the Inflation Structure Has Become More Significant Again

In the past two years, the main drivers of core inflation have been concentrated in housing and service industry wages. However, at this current stage, oil prices have become an active variable in inflation through two pathways. The first is direct transmission, as energy prices account for about 7% of the US CPI weight, and rising oil prices directly elevate transportation, travel, and household energy expenditures. The second is indirect diffusion, where energy costs permeate food, chemicals, logistics, and even manufacturing, forming cost-push inflation. More critically, the impact of oil prices on inflation expectations often leads actual data. When consumers and businesses experience continuous price increases at the gas station, the self-fulfilling mechanism of inflation expectations is activated. For the Federal Reserve, this means that the monetary policy response function is shifting from “focusing on core inflation trends” to a defensive state of “preventing inflation expectations from becoming unanchored.”

How the Logic of the Federal Reserve’s Choice to Raise Rates Has Evolved

The current increase in interest rate probabilities does not stem from an overheating economy but rather reflects the Federal Reserve’s preemptive response to “secondary inflation elevation.” From a policy logic perspective, the Federal Reserve faces three constraints. First, the labor market remains resilient, with labor supply and demand gaps not restored to pre-pandemic levels, leading to sticky service industry inflation. Second, the oil price shock has externalities and is not driven by domestic demand, but monetary policy must respond to its impact on overall inflation. Third, the Federal Reserve has repeatedly emphasized “data dependency” during the 2024-2025 policy cycle; if inflation exceeds expectations for three consecutive months, the expectations for rate cuts will be passively revised. The current market pricing of a 6.5% probability of rate increases essentially re-evaluates the scenario of “the path of declining inflation being interrupted by oil prices.”

What Valuation Pressure Has the Adjustment of Interest Rate Expectations Brought

For the cryptocurrency market, interest rate expectations are one of the most important external variables in asset pricing models. Mainstream digital assets like Bitcoin have shown a high sensitivity to actual interest rates in past cycles. When the probability of rate hikes increases, the expected path of the risk-free rate is adjusted upwards, which directly lowers the discount factor for risk assets. From the perspective of capital flows, rising real interest rates in dollars weaken the relative attractiveness of non-yielding and high-risk assets. More structurally, the macro narrative that the crypto market relied on over the past year is showing cracks. If the market shifts from “certainty of rate cuts” to “uncertainty of interest rate paths,” funds will be more inclined to concentrate on short-term certainty assets, thereby suppressing valuations of highly volatile assets. This transmission is not instantaneous, but after the trend is confirmed, it will significantly affect funding behavior patterns.

What Position Do Crypto Assets Hold in the Current Macro Structure

In a structure driven by oil prices affecting inflation and the Federal Reserve being forced to maintain high-pressure rates, the role of crypto assets is evolving from “beneficiaries of macro easing” to “testing ground for macro hedging.” On one hand, digital assets have not yet been incorporated into the mainstream framework of traditional macro asset allocation, and their correlation with the dollar, gold, and inflation expectations remains unstable, making it difficult to simply be used as inflation hedges for systematic accumulation. On the other hand, the current macro volatility is accelerating the inherent differentiation in the crypto market. Ecological projects with stable cash flow attributes and asset categories less sensitive to the real economy are showing stronger valuation resilience in a high-interest environment. Meanwhile, sectors relying on high-leverage narratives in a low-interest environment are facing continuous outflow pressure. The market is forming a new stratification: macro narratives determine the overall water level, while internal structures and fundamentals determine relative returns.

How Might Future Monetary Policy and Inflation Expectations Evolve

In the next 6 to 12 months, the Federal Reserve’s policy path will depend on the actual evolution of inflation data and the anchoring of inflation expectations. If oil prices remain at current high levels and begin to transmit to core inflation, the market will face secondary adjustments of “higher rates for longer” or even “further upward revisions of rate hike expectations.” From a probability distribution perspective, there are three main paths. Path one is a moderate decline in inflation, where rising oil prices are offset by declining core inflation, keeping rate hike probabilities low and the market re-anchoring rate cut expectations. Path two is repeated inflation, where service industry inflation and oil prices resonate, forcing the Federal Reserve to actually raise rates within the year, systematically shifting the rate center upwards. Path three is a stagflation scenario, where growth slows and inflation rises simultaneously, leaving monetary policy in a dilemma. For the crypto market, path one maintains the current valuation framework, path two will trigger a systemic reconstruction of asset pricing models, and path three will test the independent value narrative of assets in an extreme macro environment.

Risk Warning: Asymmetry and Market Misjudgment in Macro Logic

The core risk currently facing the market is not the interest rate hike probability itself but the linear extrapolation of changes in the macro structure. The first layer of risk lies in the lagging nature of inflation transmission. The complete impact of rising oil prices on inflation takes 3 to 6 months to fully reflect in the CPI; if the market prematurely judges inflation to be controllable, it may encounter passive corrections after data confirmation. The second layer of risk comes from the lagging nature of the Federal Reserve’s communication strategy. The Federal Reserve tends to maintain policy continuity and often adjusts its wording only after data confirmation, leading to leapfrog adjustments in market pricing at critical junctures. The third layer of risk is the inherent fragility of liquidity in the crypto market. Under the interplay of macro uncertainty and seasonal capital flows, a low liquidity environment may amplify price fluctuations. The accumulation of these risks means that the current 6.5% probability of a rate hike may not be the endpoint but rather the starting point of a macro narrative reconstruction process.

Summary

The unexpected rise in the probability of a rate hike to 6.5% reflects a macro situation where oil prices are driving a reconfiguration of inflation structure, the Federal Reserve is adjusting its response function, and valuation models for risk assets are facing tests. The crypto market is transitioning from a narrative solely reliant on rate cut expectations to a multidimensional pricing of interest rate path uncertainty, repeated inflation risks, and inherent asset value. Before a clear trend emerges in the macro structure, the market will undergo a phase of repeated expectations and differentiated capital flows. For participants, understanding the transmission mechanisms and time lags of macro variables is more valuable for decision-making than merely tracking the probability numbers themselves.

FAQ

Q: Does the rise in the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike mean that a rate hike will definitely occur in the short term?

A: The 6.5% implied probability reflects the market’s pricing of the likelihood of a rate hike at a future meeting and does not represent a certain event. This data points more towards changes in market expectations for the inflation path rather than a direct forecast of policy actions.

Q: Is the impact of rising oil prices on the crypto market direct or indirect?

A: It is mainly an indirect impact. Oil prices affect inflation expectations, influence the Federal Reserve’s policy path, and subsequently impact the risk-free rate and risk asset valuation models. The crypto market currently lacks systematic hedging tools directly linked to oil prices.

Q: Does crypto assets still hold allocation value in the current macro environment?

A: The macro environment alters the overall valuation level and capital preferences but does not negate the long-term value of crypto assets in terms of technology, ecosystems, and applications. However, in a period of rising interest rate uncertainty, the market tends to differentiate between assets supported by fundamentals and those driven purely by narrative.

Q: How to understand the specific impact of “interest rate expectation adjustments” on crypto market valuations?

A: In crypto asset valuation models, the discount factor is highly sensitive to actual interest rates. When rising rate hike probabilities lead to an overall upward shift in the forward rate curve, the present value of future cash flows declines, thereby exerting systemic pressure on asset prices. This impact is more pronounced in liquidity-sensitive assets.