O Estreito de Ormuz como Teste Crucial: Ray Dalio Alerta que Guerra com Irão Poderia ser Ponto de Viragem na Decadência Americana

Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio and technology thinker Balaji Srinivasan posted today. As the US continues its military conflict with Iran, control of the Strait of Hormuz will not only determine the outcome of a Middle Eastern war but may also be the “last battle” for the US as the global dominant power and the era of world superpowers.

Ray Dalio: “Strait of Hormuz” becomes the final battle for America’s survival

In his lengthy article “Everything Depends on Who Controls the Strait of Hormuz: The Final Showdown,” Dalio points out that the war between the US, Israel, and Iran ultimately has only one criterion: who can control the Strait of Hormuz. This route connecting the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea carries about 20% of global oil transportation daily. If Iran has the capacity to blockade or negotiate, Dalio believes that even if the US does not publicly admit defeat, it has already lost the most symbolic aspect of this war.

He cites a common pattern in the decline of empires: when a dominant power is defeated on key trade routes by a weaker challenger, capital, confidence, and allies quickly shift to the victorious side. The most typical example is the Suez Crisis of 1956, after Britain conceded to Egypt, marking the end of the British Empire’s global leadership. Similar patterns occurred during the decline of the Dutch Empire in the 18th century and the Spanish Empire in the 17th century:

When the world’s leading powers lose both military and financial control, it is crucial to watch for events such as allies and creditors losing confidence, reserve currencies destabilizing, debt assets being sold off, and currencies depreciating relative to gold.

Can Iran win this battle? Dalio reveals asymmetrical US-Iran positions

Dalio highlights a strategic dilemma: Iran’s strategy is to prolong the conflict and continue to exhaust, because history repeatedly shows that US public and political leaders have limited tolerance for increased casualties and prolonged wars. In contrast, Iran’s leadership sees this as a matter of national survival and dignity, far beyond concerns like oil prices or midterm election pressures:

In war, the side that can endure pain is often stronger than the side that inflicts pain.

This view is similar to Dalio’s previous analysis on the “U.S.-China trade war and the disparity in economic structures and political systems” that lead to confrontation.

The End of Five Eras: Balaji’s Structural Collapse Theory

Balaji’s analysis also aligns with Dalio’s, stating plainly: “If Iran gains the upper hand in this conflict, it will simultaneously end five centuries of historical eras.”

Balaji emphasizes the importance of the petrodollar system and economic structure. Since 1974, global oil transactions have been dollar-denominated, providing continuous demand for US currency, enabling sustained large fiscal deficits and monetary expansion.

1780 to 2020 Political Stress Index (red) and Public Happiness (blue): Political stress surged after 2010, now approaching levels seen before the US Civil War in 1860.

He believes that if this system collapses, it signifies the end of Keynesian-style fiscal management. In today’s polarized political climate, with divided information environments and bipartisan deadlock, this could be the final straw breaking the US federal system.

Beyond the Great War Cycle: Dalio Highlights the Importance of Gold

Dalio stresses that this final showdown will directly impact global trade and capital flows, involving regions from US-China, Russia-Ukraine, to Eurasia. This is part of his “Big Cycle” theory, which will influence finance, politics, and technology.

He notes that no country can sustain multiple simultaneous wars, citing Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, and now Iran. The costs are eroding the US’s ability to maintain the post-war world order.

In investment terms, Dalio offers a clear principle: when global superpowers lose both military and financial confidence, capital will first flow into gold, and the US dollar and US Treasuries will be rapidly sold off. Conversely, if Trump’s government ensures the freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, market confidence in US assets will be greatly strengthened.

(Ray Dalio warns of four major weaknesses of Bitcoin: BTC is difficult to become a safe haven asset; there is only one gold in the world)

This article, “The Strait of Hormuz: Hero or Villain,” originally appeared on Chain News ABMedia.